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The Minnesota Golden Gophers take on the Penn State Nittany Lions. Check out our college football odds series for our Minnesota Penn State prediction and pick.
This season started well for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They hammered Colorado and crushed Michigan State on the road. That wipeout of the Spartans in East Lansing was something no one anticipated. In the early stages of the Big Ten season, there was a brief surge of optimism for the Gophers. Did the beatdown of Mel Tucker and the Spartans mean that P.J. Fleck was going to Row the Boat all the way to Indianapolis for Minnesota's first Big Ten Championship Game?
The hope and optimism didn't last very long.
Minnesota's offense was smothered by Purdue at home. Then the Gophers went to Champaign and lost to Illinois. They're now on the outside looking in, a peripheral figure in the Big Ten West Division race. If they want to maintain any slight chance of staying in the hunt, they have to beat Penn State this week. Things look bleak for Minnesota, but one point to keep in mind is that the Big Ten West race is fluid. It's not a normal race. It's not Wisconsin's or Iowa's division to lose. It's up for grabs. If Minnesota can get hot — if any team can get hot — anything could happen over the next five weeks.
Penn State has lost only one game — this past weekend's blowout loss to Michigan — but the Nittany Lions have not looked very convincing this season. They played a terrible offensive game against Northwestern but were saved by their defense, which played brilliantly. They were fortunate to beat Purdue. They trailed late and would have lost if the Boilermakers had gained one more first down before punting with a few minutes left and setting the stage for Sean Clifford's game-winning touchdown drive.
Penn State's strength in the trenches did not show up against Michigan. The Nittany Lions need a forceful, muscular effort if they want to stand up to Minnesota and get back in the win column this week.
Here are the Minnesota-Penn State NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Minnesota-Penn State Odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers: +5.5 (-110)
Penn State Nittany Lions: -5.5 (-110)
Over: 43.5 (-106)
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Under: 43.5 (-114)
Why Minnesota Could Cover the Spread
The Golden Gophers are not a reliable and consistent team, but neither is Penn State. Many will say that Penn State's blowout loss to Michigan is the reason to pick against the Nittany Lions in this game, but in many ways, that ugly game against Northwestern earlier in the season might be a better reason. Can Penn State dominate a team it is supposed to beat? It's hard to be too confident about that prospect. Minnesota did just lose to Illinois, but the Illini are playing better football than Penn State is right now. If we're comparing teams in a sober and objective way, Penn State isn't as good as its reputation might suggest.
Why Penn State Could Cover the Spread
If Minnesota could not cover the spread at Illinois in a day game, it certainly isn't going to cover the spread at Penn State for a night game. The Minnesota offense, especially the passing game, is profoundly weak. Penn State can feast on this team.
Final Minnesota-Penn State Prediction & Pick
Penn State's offense and Minnesota's offense are both untrustworthy. This is therefore a stay-away game. If you absolutely insist on making a pick, take the team which is getting points and not giving them. That's Minnesota.
Final Minnesota-Penn State Prediction & Pick: Minnesota +5.5
