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The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Check out our college football odds series for our Mississippi State Alabama prediction and pick.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide are both coming off losses entering this game. Alabama's loss naturally gained a lot of national attention. It's always rare for Alabama and Nick Saban to lose a game at any point in any season. The Crimson Tide have been college football's ultimate dynasty over the past 13 years. They are regularly found in the college football national championship game. They manage to reach the College Football Playoff and make it seem routine. Yet, we know that Alabama's playoff berths are often anything but routine.
Alabama was fortunate to make the playoff in 2017. Alabama trailed Auburn by seven points in the final minute of last season's game against the Tigers. Had the Tide not come back to win that game in overtime, they would have missed the playoff. Now Alabama is once again in a position where its margin for error is slim. If Alabama does not win the rest of its regular-season games, it will very likely miss the playoff for the 2022 season. Georgia and Tennessee are both in position to push Alabama out of the playoff if the Crimson Tide lose a second game over the next month and a half. It's pressure time for Saban, whose team allowed a win over Tennessee to slip away in the final 30 seconds on a missed field goal and poor pass defense. it's time for this team to regroup.
Mississippi State lost last week in a game which received a lot less publicity. The game against Kentucky did not have national championship implications, but it was very important for the Bulldogs in terms of affecting their bowl bid, their position in the SEC West, and their ability to raise the program's ceiling under coach Mike Leach. MSU had already lost to LSU earlier in the season, so it needed to grab a road win against Kentucky precisely because it knew that the Alabama game was just around the corner. If this team wanted to have a reasonable shot at winning 10 games this season, it needed to beat Kentucky. That did not happen. The Bulldogs' offense bogged down against Mark Stoops' flinty defense. Mississippi State couldn't break free from the Wildcats and endured a brutal stumble. Now Mississippi State has to find a way to regroup.
Here are the Mississippi State-Alabama NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Mississippi State-Alabama Odds
Mississippi State Bulldogs: +21 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide: -21 (-110)
Over: 60.5 (-112)
Under: 60.5 (-108)
Why Mississippi State Could Cover the Spread
The point spread is large, and as you were able to see against Tennessee, Alabama does not have the physically imposing line play needed to bury good teams. The Crimson Tide had an elite offensive line in 2020, and they were able to use that line to play a notch above every other team in the country. This Alabama team just can't separate from its opponents. It almost lost to Texas and Texas A&M before finally falling to Tennessee. Mississippi State can make this game competitive for four quarters.
Why Alabama Could Cover the Spread
The Crimson Tide will want to make a very loud statement after losing to Tennessee. They will be angry, and Mississippi State — whose passing offense can't hurt Bama the way Tennessee's passing attack did — will be the unlucky victim with a bad sense of timing.
Final Mississippi State-Alabama Prediction & Pick
Alabama will win, but the Crimson Tide are not a dominant team in 2022. MSU can stay moderately close and cover.
Final Mississippi State-Alabama Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State +21
