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The New Mexico State Aggies are set to face the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our New Mexico State-Alabama prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the New Mexico State-Alabama odds:
College Football odds: New Mexico State-Alabama Odds
New Mexico State: +51.5 (-115)
Alabama: – 51.5 (-105)
Over: 67.5 (-110)
Under 67.5 (-110)
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Why New Mexico State Could Cover the Spread
The New Mexico State Aggies are on a rough five-game skid and have to travel to Tuscaloosa to face a top team in Alabama this weekend. The Aggies have a 1-8 record on the year. Their lone win came against South Carolina State in which the Aggies put up 43 points and 427 yards. Quarterback Jonah Johnson has 1,975 passing yards with eight touchdowns and 102 rushing yards with four touchdowns. He is the catalyst for this Aggie offense and will need to take care of the football against a pesky Alabama defense.
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Defensively, New Mexico State gives up 38.5 points and 467.8 yards per game to opponents. They will have to contain Alabama's high-powered offense that scores over 40 points per game. If they can force a turnover on their side of the field and turn it into points, then it may be enough to cover this monstrous spread. In their last five road games, New Mexico State is 5-0 against the spread and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games overall. Alabama did not cover the 50-point spread against Mercer earlier this season.
Why Alabama Could Cover the Spread
The 2nd ranked Alabama Crimson Tide are always a top football program every year. They have extreme NFL-level talent on both sides of the ball and have Nick Saban as their head coach. The Crimson Tide are on a three-game win streak after beating LSU 20-14 at home last week. The offense ranks 3rd in points per game (42.4), 9th in yards per game (479.5) and 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage (57.98%). Quarterback Bryce Young is in contention for the Heisman trophy this year, throwing for 2,755 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and only three picks. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. has 724 rushing yards and twelve touchdowns and the receiving corps have at least five receivers with over 100 receiving yards and multiple touchdown scores. It does not get more dominant than that.
On the defensive end, Alabama allows 20.6 points and 316.1 yards per game to opponents. It will be difficult for New Mexico State to generate any type of run game as Bama ranks 7th in opponent yards per rush with only 3.0. In their last 14 home games, Alabama is 11-3 against the spread. In their last eight games against a team with a losing record, Alabama is 8-0 against the spread. God bless the Aggies this weekend!
Final New Mexico State-Alabama Prediction & Pick
This spread indicates that New Mexico State will most likely have trouble scoring and thus will punt the ball away only for Alabama to move down the field quickly. The Crimson Tide will score in bunches and will force many three and outs. With that being said, I can see the backups coming in in the second half and slowing down the pace of the game. Alabama has Arkansas and Auburn in the upcoming weeks so they probably will not take this game as seriously. It will come down to whether or not New Mexico State can score a touchdown or two. I will take a shot with the Aggies and hope that Alabama lets their foot off the gas late in the game.
FINAL NEW MEXICO STATE-ALABAMA PREDICTION & PICK: New Mexico State +51.5 (-110)
