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The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Purdue Boilermakers. Check out our college football odds series for our Penn State Purdue prediction and pick.
When the 2021 college football season began, Penn State had elite aspirations, and Purdue coach Jeff Brohm was rightly being doubted by his fan base. Penn State had a top-tier defense and the legitimate belief it could ride that defense to a big year and a Big Ten championship. The Nittany Lions won the Big Ten in 2016 and had shown they could play on even terms with Ohio State. They were better than Michigan. They entered 2021 with more preseason buzz than Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines, who had not yet proven they could win the Big Ten.
Purdue had been laboring under the weight of expectations, failing to claim a number of highly winnable games, particularly in early-season nonconference play and in lower-tier Big Ten matchups. The program did not take off under Brohm, contrary to the high hopes and expectations which greeted Brohm's arrival in West Lafayette. A 2018 beatdown of Ohio State (49-20) showed what was possible at Purdue, but the Boilermakers didn't turn that 29-point thrashing into sustained performance and results. That game in many ways became an albatross. Fans would rightly ask, “Why aren't we playing at that level all the time, or at least some of the time?”
The 2021 season changed the outlook at these two schools.
Penn State's preseason optimism, and a place in the top five of the national rankings, evaporated when quarterback Sean Clifford got hurt in a huge game against Iowa. Penn State lost to the Hawkeyes and could not recover. The offensive line was atrocious, especially in a 20-18 nine-overtime loss to Illinois, one of the worst-played games in college football history. Penn State came nowhere close to a Big Ten title or a prestigious bowl bid.
Purdue, on the other hand, soared to a nine-win campaign. The Boilermakers beat two teams when those opponents were ranked in the top five: Iowa when the Hawkeyes were No. 2, and Michigan State when the Spartans were No. 3. Purdue then beat Tennessee in a classic shootout to win the Music City Bowl. If Brohm can replicate what he did in 2021, or at least come very close to it, Purdue fans will become very satisfied with their head coach.
Let's see if 2022 accelerates the trends created in 2021, or if Penn State can change the conversation in this huge season opener.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Penn State-Purdue College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Penn State-Purdue Odds
Penn State Nittany Lions: -3.5 (-104)
Purdue Boilermakers: +3.5 (-118)
Over: 53.5 (-105)
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Under: 53.5 (-115)
Why Penn State Could Cover the Spread
You need to know that Penn State has dominated this series against Purdue, both on an all-time level and in recent years, including and especially in West Lafayette. The numbers tell the whole story: Penn State leads the series 15-3-1. The Nittany Lions have won nine straight games in the series. They are 7-2 in West Lafayette and have not lost on the road against Purdue since 2003.
Penn State has a defense which can keep the Purdue passing game under wraps. Also keep in mind that Purdue no longer has receiver David Bell, a special playmaker from the 2021 squad. Purdue is noticeably thin at that group, and the Boilermakers have also lost pass rusher George Karlaftis from last year's team. Purdue has a lot of questions it might not be able to answer.
Why Purdue Could Cover the Spread
After the season, Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry took the open head coaching job at Virginia Tech. PSU head coach James Franklin replaced Pry with Manny Diaz, who was fired as Miami's head coach to make way for Mario Cristobal. If you think — as many people in the college football industry do — that the switch from Pry to Diaz is a downgrade at the defensive coordinator position for Penn State, the Purdue offense might be able to find ways to score. Brohm and his staff might be able to outscheme Diaz and get more from their resources, even without David Bell and other key contributors. If quarterback Aidan O'Connell has a big game, Purdue wins. It's that simple.
Final Penn State-Purdue Prediction & Pick
When one team so regularly has another team's number, it's hard to bet against that trend unless the talent disparity is conspicuous in the other direction. Penn State should cover.
Final Penn State-Purdue Prediction & Pick: Penn State -3.5
