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The SMU Mustangs are set to face the Cincinnati Bearcats this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our SMU-Cincinnati prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the SMU-Cincinnati odds:
College Football odds: SMU-Cincinnati Odds
SMU: +11.5 (-110)
Cincinnati: -11.5 (-110)
Over: 65.5 (-112)
Under: 65.5 (-108)
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Why SMU Could Cover the Spread
The SMU Mustangs have an impressive 2021 campaign with an 8-2 record and 3rd in the American conference. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a dominant 55-28 win against UCF last week. The Mustangs scored 38 points in the first half and cruised to an easy victory. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai finished the game with 377 passing yards and three touchdowns. As a team, the Mustangs finished with a whopping 631 total yards. SMU ranks 5th in the nation in points per game (40.0), 7th in yards per game (499.8), and 9th in yards per play (6.6).
Defensively, SMU gives up 27.8 points on 413.9 yards per game to opponents. They held UCF to 15 first downs and 27:22 time of possession last week. The offense is the strongest part of this team, and they will need to produce against a pesky Bearcat defense that gives up just 4.3 yards per play (7th) and 64.29% opponent red-zone scoring percentage (5th).
Why Cincinnati Could Cover the Spread
The 5th ranked Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the three remaining undefeated football programs in the nation. The Bearcats have been as dominant as can be on both sides of the ball. They lead the nation in opponent completion percentage (51.52%), 2nd in takeaways per game (2.6), and rank No. 8 in the nation in points per game (38.9). The defense is very dominant, and the offense complements them by capitalizing on turnovers and field position. The Bearcats lead the nation in 4th down conversion percentage as well (88.89%). Quarterback Desmond Ridder has 2,425 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. Running back, Jerome Ford has 888 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns.
Cincinnati holds opponents to a 64.29% red-zone scoring rate which is 5th in the nation. They force teams to kick field goals and then continue to score touchdowns on the following possessions. They are a team well-suited for the College football playoffs this year, and it will be shocking if they do not receive a bid to get in. In their last ten home games, the Cincinnati Bearcats are 7-3 against the spread.
Final SMU-Cincinnati Prediction & Pick
The Bearcats are playing solid football; however, the offense was sub-par, coughing up three turnovers and eight penalties last game. They will need to clean this up against SMU this weekend to keep their undefeated streak alive. The Bearcats are 4-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record. SMU is a strong football team that can put up points in bunches. I believe that they will do enough offensively to hang around with the Bearcats in this matchup.
SMU is coming off its best offensive output, totaling over 600 yards against UCF. Both of SMU's losses have come on the road this year, and each of their three road wins has come by eight points or fewer. I would back the Mustangs in this game and take the points against the spread. Betting this game live to get a higher line over two touchdowns with SMU once Cincinnati scores first is not a bad alternative either.
Final Cincinnati-SMU Prediction & Pick: SMU Mustangs +11.5 (-110)
