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Sean Payton is still in search of his first win with the Denver Broncos and will look to pick it up on Sunday when the Washington Commanders come to town. It's time to continue our NFL odds series with a Commanders-Broncos prediction and pick.
The Denver Broncos were held largely in check by the Las Vegas defense in Week 1, and were unable to put up more than 16 in a one-point loss to the Raiders in Sean Payton's head coaching debut in Denver. Russell Wilson was accurate in the pocket, completing 27-of-34 passes and throwing no interceptions, but was unable to eclipse 200 yards with the short passing game. He played relatively mistake-free and added two touchdowns through the air, but it wasn't enough to get the job done. A missed extra point and a missed field goal proved to be the difference in a game with long drives and few possessions. The Broncos have now lost seven straight to the Raiders, and will try to put that bad memory behind them when looking for Payton's first victory this weekend.
The Washington Commanders were lucky to escape with a win over the banged-up Arizona Cardinals, surviving 20-16 thanks to a fourth-quarter surge. The Commanders trailed at half and through the third quarter before Howell capitalized off of Arizona's miscues to scramble in for a touchdown early in the fourth. They tacked on a field goal off of another fumble to extend the cushion, but it was certainly an anxiety-inducing contest for Washington fans who were expecting an easier go against a backup QB. They may not have the same fortunes on their trip out to Denver, going against a disciplined Sean Payton team who will try to avoid turnovers and grind it with methodical offensive drives.
The Broncos lead the all-time series against Washington, 8-7, and they have split every matchup back and forth since 1998. The Broncos won the last meeting in 2021, and will try to break the even splits by taking two in a row on their home turf.
Here are the Commanders-Broncos NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Commanders-Broncos Odds
Washington Commanders: +3.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 38.5 (-115)
Under: 38.5 (-105)
How to Watch Commanders vs. Broncos Week 2
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV, NFL+
Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25 PM PT
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Commanders Could Cover The Spread
The Washington Commanders come into Week 2 with high hopes for their young QB Sam Howell. After riding the bench in his first year watching a tumultuous quarterbacking situation unfold, he finally got his chance at the end of the season and proved he could have a shot at the starting role. He excelled in a thrilling preseason contest against the Baltimore Ravens and gave many fans belief that he may be the guy. He turned in 200 yards in Week 1, adding a touchdown in the air and one on the ground, but was granted several short fields due to opposing turnovers. The Commanders will need him to play poised in the pocket against a stronger Broncos defense, and avoid mistakes that could flip the field and lead to Denver points.
The Broncos are likely to stack their All-Pro corner, Patrick Surtain II, on speedy WR1 Terry McLaurin. He forced a career-high three pass breakups a week ago against Davante Adams and only allowed him two catches for 11 yards while in coverage of the superstar wideout. Surtain's matchup against McLaurin will open the door for second-year pro Jahan Dotson, and Howell will have to focus on him to open up the field. Dotson had five grabs for 40 yards against the Cardinals, and look for his targets to continue and increase as the second-best option, especially with third target Curtis Samuel questionable for this contest.
In addition to the secondary passing attack, the Commanders will have to pound the rock with Brian Robinson to keep drives moving down the field. Robinson took the bulk of carries in Week 1, running 19 times for 59 yards. He was expected to split time with Antonio Gibson in the backfield similar to last season, but Gibson only saw 3 carries for 9 yards in the first showing. Coach Ron Rivera may try to share the load if Robinson is unable to extend past 3 yards per carry again, but having success on the ground will be pivotal to keep the pressure off the young Howell so he is not forced into third and long and obvious passing situations.
Why The Broncos Could Cover The Spread
The Denver Broncos are desperate to get a Week 2 win after falling short against the Raiders and seemingly played well enough to have gotten it done if not for a few special teams miscues. Russell Wilson looked far improved in year 2 in the orange and blue, and while it is too soon to tell, Sean Payton is likely to have a massive impact on his revival after years of success with future hall-of-Famer Drew Brees. Wilson will need to continue playing mistake-free football, avoiding any turnovers in Week 1 and completing nearly 80% of his passes.
Jerry Jeudy looks to be back for the Broncos after sitting out last week with a hamstring injury suffered in camp. The former Alabama star has elite speed that opens up the field for Wilson, either generating the deep ball or taking the attention away from the other targets. The Wilson-to-Jeudy connection was one of the few bright spots in the Broncos' miserable 2022 campaign. He finished with six or more catches in each of the last five games down the stretch and racked up serious yardage with Wilson slinging it to him. If he is back and healthy, he will be able to bust open a middle-of-the-road Commanders defense and enable his teammates to find success around him.
Final Commanders-Broncos Prediction & Pick
The Denver Broncos and Sean Payton will pick up a much-needed victory at home, holding Howell and the Commanders to limited points and dominating on long drives led by Russell Wilson. While it is always tough with a hook at 3.5, and on a low total of 39.5, the Broncos should still be able to capitalize enough times to create a cushion while preventing the Commanders from getting the short field like they did a week ago.
Final Commanders-Broncos Prediction & Pick: Broncos -3.5 (-110)
