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Who's ready for an NL West showdown? Get ready for an entertaining clash on the diamond when the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Diego Padres. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Padres prediction and pick.
Diamondbacks-Padres Projected Starters
Ryne Nelson vs. Matt Waldron
Ryne Nelson (3-4) with a 5.44 ERA …
Last Start: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 K
2024 Road Splits: 22 IP, (1-2), 3.97 ERA
Matt Waldron (3-5) with a 3.98 ERA …
Last Start: 6.1 IP, 2 H, ER, 4 K
2024 Home Splits: 27.0 IP, (1-4), 5.00 ERA
It hasn't been the type of start to the season that the Diamondbacks, but with five wins in their last six contests, it is Arizona that could be headed in the right direction. Overall, the D-Backs are 30-33 and luckily still possess a good portion of their season remaining. Can Arizona continue to play stellar ball as the regular season progresses into June?
On the other side of things, the Padres are in a very similar boat as the Diamondbacks with a near-identical record. at 32-34, it is clear that San Diego has some major work to do as they are currently in the midst of a five-game losing streak and are a whopping eight games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West. Can the Friars start to turn their season around or is it far too late?
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Padres Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-276)
Moneyline: +122
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -144
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-11o)
How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Article Continues Below
Time: 8:40 ET/5:40 PT
TV: MLB.TV, Bally Sports Arizona
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
For starters, the best chance that the Diamondbacks have at covering the spread and continuing their victorious play will be in large part to an offense that isn't afraid to make some noise. On paper, Arizona is averaging a healthy 4.65 runs per game and have already scored the eighth-most runs in all of baseball. In addition, the D-Backs know how to make situations stressful for opposing pitching as they are equipped with a .317 on-base percentage. Even if Arizona struggles to hurl the baseball from the pitching rubber, they can still find a way to triumph due to their elite hitting metrics.
A year ago, then-rookie Corbin Carroll was an integral part of Arizona's offense en route to a magical NL Pennant run. Fast forward to 2024, and it appears that Carroll couldn't be more lost at the plate. After raking 25 home runs and slashing .285 in 2023, Carroll is hitting only .201 and has hit just two balls into the outfield bleachers one summer later. Indeed, Carroll's sophomore slump is a bit of a head-scratcher at this point in time, and Arizona will have no chance of replicating last year's success if he doesn't start figuring things out at the plate.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
It hasn't always been rainbows and butterflies for the Padres this season, and their active losing stretch is a prime example of that. As a matter of fact, San Diego has been far too inconsistent on the baseball diamond to be taken seriously. Even worse, third-baseman Manny Machado seemed to hurt himself while running to first base. It may seem like the sky is falling in San Diego, but there is still opportunities for Padres to take care of business.
Above all else, it will prove to be of utmost importance for San Diego to get off to a swift start. In the most recent defeat to the D-Backs, the Padres quickly fell behind the eight-ball in the first few frames of the ballgame. Before San Diego could even blink, the trailed 3-0. If the Padres are going to return the favor, then they will have to strike while the iron is hot in the opening stages of the contest.
Overall, the Padres are shockingly poor in terms of covering the spread at home. Believe it or not, but the Friars have accounted for a porous 10-23 record ATS within the confines of Petco Park. Without a doubt, it may end up being starting pitcher Matt Waldron to be responsible for leading the troops to success. Over the span of his last 13.1 innings pitched, the 27-year-old from Omaha, Nebraska has surrendered just one run.
Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick
The Diamondbacks have been hot while the Padres have been not. However, the dominating success of Matt Waldron cannot be ignored, and he will be the reason why San Diego is able to cover the spread. Not to mention, but the +164 spread value is too good to pass up.
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Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+146)
