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It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Padres prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Diamondbacks Padres.
The San Diego Padres have figured something out at the plate. A team which was never able to hit very consistently in the 2023 season, and which played the first two months of the 2024 season in a manner which was agonizingly similar to the whole of 2023, began to really come alive in June. The Padres were a team which, in all of 2023 and early 2024, would play one really good offensive game and then get shut down in the next one or two games, with that pattern recurring on a constant basis. The Padres couldn't hit well at home and couldn't sustain offense with any regularity. The big bats would sometimes unload, offering a teasing glimpse of the team's potential, but hitters could not carry one day's good play into the next day. Baseball is an everyday sport, so the Padres' lack of consistency crushed them. They somehow missed the playoffs in 2023 even though 84 wins were good enough to get in for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rode those 84 wins to the World Series. The Padres were a break-even team through the first two months of the season, and it was mostly because the bats hadn't yet come alive.
That has finally changed, to the relief of the Padres and their fans. San Diego has been able to score at least five runs with the dependability this franchise has been searching for. The Padres have hit the five-run mark (or better) in 11 of their last 15. Not coincidentally, the Padres are 12-3 in those 15 games and have dramatically turned around their season. They are now solidly in position for a National League wild card berth and look like the kind of team which can be trouble for the top dogs in the National League. If this is the San Diego team which shows up for the rest of the season, the Padres will be a team no one wants to face in October.
Diamondbacks-Padres Projected Starters
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Matt Waldron
Brandon Pfaadt (3-6) has a 4.28 ERA. He is not having the kind of season the Diamondbacks hoped for, after seeing him star in the National League playoffs last October. However, he just delivered a strong start against the Oakland A's and is showing signs of rounding into form. The D-Backs need that iteration of Pfaadt to remain in evidence throughout the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen back on staff after an injury, so that should help, but they need Pfaadt to improve in order to make a strong push at the playoffs.
Last Start: Sunday, June 30 versus the Oakland A's: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
2024 Road Splits: 9 starts, 53 2/3 IP, 49 H, 31 R, 7 HR, 15 BB, 47 K
Matt Waldron (5-7) has a 3.56 ERA. The knuckleballer has been a reliable part of the San Diego rotation this season. The win-loss record doesn't show it, but the ERA does. Keep in mind that Waldron's win-loss record has been a product of the Padres' spotty offense in the months preceding the recent offensive surge. If Waldron pitches to a 3.50 ERA in every start, the Padres' newfound offensive firepower should help him win more games.
Last Start: Sunday, June 30 versus the Boston Red Sox: 4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
2024 Home Splits: 7 starts, 39 IP, 38 H, 18 R, 4 HR, 8 BB, 39 K
Here are the Diamondbacks-Padres MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Padres Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: +100
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: -118
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Article Continues Below
Under: 7.5 (-115)
How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT
TV: MLB (Diamondbacks) / MLB (Padres) / MLB Extra Innings
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks desperately need to win, more than the Padres do. Urgency is the best reason to take them here. They're also mad after losing a lead in the bottom of the ninth on Friday in San Diego.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have found the hitting formula, scoring 10 runs against Arizona pitching on Friday. They're hot. Why not stick with them as a bettor, given that they're 12-3 on the money line in their last 15?
Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick
The D-Backs need this game more, but the Padres are hitting well. Our view: Stay away from this game.
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Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks money line
