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It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Dolphins-Bills prediction and pick. The Dolphins got Tua Tagovailoa back last week but did not look immediately better as an offense. The Bills look great and look like one of the best teams in the NFL.
The Dolphins are struggling and have a 2-5 record. After last week, they won against the Jaguars and the Patriots but then lost against the Bills, the Seahawks, the Titans, the Colts, and the Cardinals. They got Tua Tagovailoa back from injury against the Cardinals, but it did not matter much because they still lost on a last-second field goal. This division game is another big test for the Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa.
The Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 6-2, with wins against the Cardinals, Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets, Titans, and Seahawks. Then, they have losses to the Ravens and Texans. The Bills lead the AFC East, and Josh Allen is the frontrunner to win the MVP award. The defense has also played well so far, and they are primed to stay on top of the AFC if they can get past a Dolphins team with Tua back under center.
Here are the Dolphins-Bills NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Dolphins-Bills Odds
Miami Dolphins: +6.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +215
Buffalo Bills: -6.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -260
Over: 49.5 (-110)
Under: 49.5 (-110)
How to Watch Dolphins vs. Bills
Time: 2:00 pm ET/11:00 am PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Dolphins Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Dolphins have struggled this season, especially on offense, but Tua being back helps a lot. They average 318 yards per game and still have the worst-scoring offense in the NFL at 13.9 points per game. The offense operates much better with Tagovailoa under center. He has 717 passing yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions with a 68% completion percentage. The receivers have struggled to get going without Tua, but they should play better with him back. Tyreek Hill is the key out wide with 366 receiving yards and one touchdown on 30 receptions. Then, on the ground, De'Von Achane has been solid at best and leads with 357 yards and one touchdown on 81 carries.
The Dolphins' defense has been great this season. They allow 300 yards and 22.4 points per game, ranking sixth in total defense and not as good in scoring defense. They are great against the pass, allowing 176.3 yards through the air, which is fifth in the NFL. They are not as good against the run, allowing 123.7 yards per game on the ground. The defense is littered with talent. Jordyn Brooks, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Zach Sieler have been great up front. Then, Jordan Poyer, Jevon Holland, and Jalen Ramsey have been great in the secondary, which is why that pass defense is great.
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Bills have been great this season. They have been humming on offense for the most part up to this point in the year. They average 336.5 yards per game and then score 28.8 points per game. The offense goes as Josh Allen goes under center. He has 1,766 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception with a 64.1% completion percentage. The running game has been great with James Cook. Cook has 452 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 99 carries. Khalil Shakur has been solid in the receiving corps and has 421 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 36 receptions. They also got even better with adding Amari Cooper after a trade with the Browns.
The Bills' defense has been solid this season for the most part this season. They allow 328.4 yards per game and 18.3 points per game. They have been great against the pass, allowing 208.1 yards per game, and have been solid against the ground, allowing 120.3 yards per game. The defense has talent, too, with Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver up front and Rasul Douglas and Taylor Rapp in the secondary. This defense will be the biggest factor for the Bills moving forward this season.
Final Dolphins-Bills Prediction & Pick
The Bills are better than the Dolphins, but this spread is too big. Tua Tagovailoa is an X-factor for this game and should help keep it close. The Bills won easily against the Dolphins in their first matchup, but that was when Tua got injured. This feels like it is going to be a close game. The Bills are the better team and should win, but the Dolphins will cover on the road. The offense looks much different with Tua back under center, and that should help them in this game, even on the road.
Final Dolphins-Bills Prediction & Pick: Miami Dolphins +6.5 (-115)
