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The Guardians make the trip to Miami to face the Marlins! These two teams are playing very differently with the Guardians having a very good season, while the Marlins have been one of the worst teams in the MLB. The Guardians come in playing red-hot, while the Marlins are spiraling. Our MLB odds series has our Guardians-Marlins prediction, odds, and pick for Friday.
Guardians-Marlins Projected Starters
Logan Allen vs. Ryan Weathers
Logan Allen (6-3) with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched 1.2 innings and gave up seven runs on six hits with two walks and one strikeout in a Guardians loss.
2024 Road Splits: (4-3), 4.84 ERA
Ryan Weathers (3-5) with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched six innings and gave up four runs on nine hits with zero walks and 11 strikeouts in a loss.
2024 Home Splits: (1-2), 5.33 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Marlins Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: -120
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-170)
Moneyline: +102
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
How to Watch Guardians vs. Marlins
Time: 7:10 pm ET
TV: Bally Sports Florida / Bally Sports Great Lakes
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have been great this season at 40-20. They have won three out of their last four games leading into this game. Their bats have dipped and are in the middle of the pack, while their pitching has been a top-10 staff. Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Tyler Freeman, and Josh Naylor have carried the Guardians on offense. Tanner Bibee, Triston McKenzie, and Ben Lively have held down the fort in the pitching staff very well despite Shane Bieber getting Tommy John Surgery. They have been one of the best teams in the MLB this season.
The Guardians are starting Logan Allen as a pitcher and he has a 6-3 record, a 5.83 ERA, and a 1.55 WHIP. Allen has allowed 39 runs on 71 hits with 20 walks and 51 strikeouts. In his 12 starts, the Guardians are 7-5. Allen has been inconsistent on the mound and has struggled this season for the Guardians. This is a favorable matchup for him because the Marlins have taken a step back behind the plate this season, making this an interesting matchup overall.
The Guardians are a talented team behind the plate but cooled off recently. They are 16th in team batting average at .238 after finishing last season at .259. The offense is led by Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez in the batting categories. Ramirez leads the way in batting average at .272, in home runs at 16, in RBI at 58, and in hits at 64. Gimenez then leads the way in OBP at .331. This offense has shown flashes, but they get a difficult matchup against Ryan Weathers for the Marlins at pitcher.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins are one of the worst teams in the MLB and currently have a 21-41 record. Their bats have climbed up to the middle of the pack, while their pitching is also one of the worst units in the MLB. Bryan De la Cruz, Jake Burger, Josh Bell, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have stood out despite their inconsistencies on offense. Ryan Weathers has been the best player on the mound for a struggling pitching staff. They have been one of the worst teams in the MLB this season.
The Marlins are starting Ryan Weathers on the mound where he has a 3-5 record, a 3.41 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP. Through 68.2 innings, he has allowed 29 runs on 57 hits with 20 walks and 64 strikeouts. Weathers has started in 12 games for the Marlins and they have gone 5-7 in those starts. Weathers is the biggest bright spot for the Marlins on the mound. The Guardians have talent and depth on offense, but Weathers has the talent to shut them down.
The Marlins' offense has struggled this season. They are 17th in team batting average at .237 after finishing last season with a .259 batting average. The offense is led by Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell. Bell leads the way in batting average at .255, in RBI at 30, in OBP at .324, and in total hits at 60. De La Cruz then leads the way in home runs at 10. This is a decent matchup for this offense because Allen has been inconsistent for the Guardians.
Final Guardians-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Guardians are the better team across the board in this matchup. However, the Marlins have an advantage on the mound with Weathers compared to Allen and the Guardians offense is nothing special already. The Marlins offense is playing better too and the difference between the two offenses statistically is marginal at the moment. Weathers should help the Marlins cover at home, even if the Guardians still win, it will be close.
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Final Guardians-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-170)
