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The Guardians make the trip to Miami to face the Marlins! These two teams are playing like complete opposites with how well the Guardians are playing, compared too how much the Marlins are struggling. Our MLB odds series has our Guardians-Marlins prediction, odds, and pick for Saturday.
Guardians-Marlins Projected Starters
Ben Lively vs. Trevor Rogers
Ben Lively (5-2) with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched 5.2 innings and gave up two runs on five hits with one walk and four strikeouts in a Guardians win.
2024 Road Splits: (2-2), 3.67 ERA
Trevor Rogers (1-7) with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched six innings and gave up four runs on six hits with two walks and three strikeouts in a Marlins loss.
2024 Home Splits: (0-4), 5.88 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Marlins Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+105)
Moneyline: -156
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-126)
Moneyline: +132
Over: 8.5 (+100)
Under: 8.5 (-122)
How to Watch Guardians vs. Marlins
Time: 7:35 pm ET
TV: Bally Sports Florida / Bally Sports Great Lakes
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have been great this season at 40-21 heading into this series. Their bats are now in the middle of the pack, while their pitching has been a top-10 staff. Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Tyler Freeman, and Josh Naylor have carried the Guardians on offense. Tanner Bibee, Triston McKenzie, and Ben Lively have held down the fort in the pitching staff very well with Shane Bieber getting Tommy John Surgery. They have been one of the best teams in the MLB this season, and not just the AL.
The Guardians are starting Ben Lively as a pitcher and he has a 5-2 record, a 2.84 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP. Allen has allowed 16 runs on 44 hits with 15 walks and 47 strikeouts through 50.2 innings. In his nine starts, the Guardians are 6-3. Lively has been great on the mound for the Guardians this season. He gets a favorable matchup against the Marlins with their offense below average.
The Guardians are a talented team behind the plate but cooled off recently. They are 16th in team batting average at .238 after finishing last season at .259. The offense is led by Jose Ramirez in almost every batting category. Ramirez leads the way in batting average at .276, in home runs at 17, in RBI at 60, in OBP at .335, and in hits at 66. This offense has shown flashes, but they get a favorable matchup against presumably Trevor Rogers because of how much he has struggled as a pitcher for the Marlins.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins are one of the worst teams in the MLB and currently have a 21-41 record. Their bats have climbed up to the middle of the pack, while their pitching is also one of the worst units in the MLB. Bryan De la Cruz, Jake Burger, Josh Bell, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have stood out despite their offense struggles. Ryan Weathers has been the best player on the mound for a struggling pitching staff. Not much has gone right for the Marlins this year.
The Marlins are starting Trevor Rogers as pitcher where he has a 1-7 record, a 5.68 ERA, and a 1.75 WHIP. Through 57 innings, he has allowed 40 runs on 73 hits with 27 walks and 47 strikeouts. Rogers has started in 12 games for the Marlins and they have gone 1-11 in those starts. Rogers has had a rough season and even though the Guardians offense is not elite he might make them look elite with how much he has struggled so far.
The Marlins' offense has not been great to start the season. They are 17th in team batting average at .237 after finishing last season at .259. The offense is led by Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell. Bell leads the way in batting average at .255, in RBI at 30, in OBP at .324, and in total hits at 60. De La Cruz then leads the way in home runs at 10. This is a difficult matchup for this offense because Lively might be the best pitcher available for a great Guardians pitching staff.
Final Guardians-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Guardians are the better team in this matchup when compared to the Marlins. It comes down to pitching and Lively has been much better on the mound when compared to Rogers. The difference in offense is marginal between both sets of bats behind the plate. Expect the Guardians to win and cover in this game on the road thanks largely because of Lively on the mound and because of how much Rogers has struggled for the Marlins.
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Final Guardians-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+105)
