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We're back with another betting prediction and pick inside MLB as we head towards the continuation of this next three-game season series. The Cleveland Guardians (10-9) will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8-13) as Cleveland took their first meeting 10-7. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Guardians-Pirates prediction and pick.
The Cleveland Guardians most recently beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 10-7 as the two teams will meet once again. They've gone a very solid 7-3 over their last 10 games, but they'll be facing Paul Skenes in this game and come in as the rightful betting underdogs.
The Pittsburgh Pirates dropped the first game of this series to Cleveland, but they've managed to win three of their last five games. This, of course, comes right off the heels of a series sweep at the hands of the Reds, so they're certainly looking to get back on track with a win here.
Guardians-Pirates Projected Starters
Ben Lively (RHP) vs. Paul Skenes (RHP)
Ben Lively (0-2) with a 4.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 16 K, 20.1 IP
Last Start: (L) vs. KC – 6.0 IP, 5 K, 4 ER
Away Splits: (0-1) with a 6.75 ERA, .289 OBA, 7 K, 9.1 IP
Paul Skenes (2-1) with a 2.96 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 26 K, 24.1 IP
Last Start: (W) vs. WSH – 6.0 IP, 6 K, 1 ER
Home Splits: (1-1) with a 4.50 ERA, .191 OBA, 13 K, 12.0 IP
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Pirates Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-144)
Moneyline: +144
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -172
Over: 8 (+100)
Under: 8 (-122)
How to Watch Guardians vs. Pirates
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET/ 1:05 p.m. PT
TV: AT&T SportsNet, MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Cleveland Guardians are looking for another dominant run through the American League Central this season as they have all the tools for another successful postseason campaign. Bo Naylor was the difference in their last win with three hits and three RBIs to lift his team over Pittsburgh. They'll certainly have a tall task in going up against Paul Skenes during this second meeting, but their 16 runs in their last two wins is every indication that this team can round the base paths when needed.
The Guardians will send Ben Lively to the mound, who's looking for a better campaign this season than his last. He's had two tough road starts this season and his ERA is creeping near 5.00 on the road, so he'll need to find his control early into this game. They're certainly at a disadvantage through the first five innings, but their bullpen and power on offense should give them a solid chance once Skenes is out of the game.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled out the gate and it's clear this team is still numerous pieces away from really contending for an NL crown. Still, Oneil Cruz has been red hot this season with five home runs as he's opened his last two games with leadoff homers. If the Pirates can manage to jump out to an early lead, they certainly stand a great chance to hold it with the Guardians playing from behind and Paul Skenes on the mound.
Paul Skenes has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his four starts this season and he hasn't pitched deeper than the seventh inning in any game. During the first few innings, he's attacking batters with the most consistent fastball in the MLB and it'll be another effort in getting his team the lead before he departs. Their bullpen has been shaky at times this season, so it's crucial to their success that Skenes has a dominant outing while he's on the mound.
Final Guardians-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Guardians are certainly the better team on paper and they showed their ability to tag this pitching staff with 10 runs in the last meeting between these two teams. Pittsburgh is certainly a few years away from having a dominant team, but their rebuild begins with one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball with Paul Skenes on the mound.
The Guardians have also shown an ability to score runs late in games, so they'll maintain a chance to win as long as they can cut Skenes' start short early into this game. Still, I don't expect them to see much success with their bats through the first few innings, so look for the Pirates to jump out to an early lead in this one.
While we have to favor Cleveland as the better team, we can't bet against Paul Skenes and what he's able to do for his team. Let's take the value on the first-five run line as the Pirates get off to a strong start in this one.
Final Guardians-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings -0.5 (-140)
