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The Houston Astros look to keep the magic alive despite aging superstars. The window is still open in Houston as we continue our MLB odds series with a Houston Astros over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Astros finished the 2024 season 88-73, winning the American League West despite an awful start. Ultimately, their season would end at the hands of the Detroit Tigers, who shocked them in the American League Wildcard Round.
There are some changes in H-Town, as Alex Bregman chose to sign with the Boston Red Sox. Significantly, he was not the only player the Astros lost, as Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi are no longer with the team. The Astros signed Christian Walker to fill the void at first base. Additionally, they also added Isaac Paredes in a trade with the Chicago Cubs. What result will these signings create? Let's find out.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 86.5 Wins: -104
Under 86.5 Wins: -118
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Why You Should Bet the Over
The Astros are too good of a team not to win 87 games. Ultimately, they are still in the same division as the Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels, who they went 17-9 against in 2024. As long as they dominate these teams, they will have the inside track at the division. But they also have the pitching to sustain it.
Framber Valdez was exceptional last season, going 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 169 strikeouts over a combined 176 1/3 innings. Additionally, his elite sinker helped produce 32 double plays while also fielding the highest ground-ball rate (59.8 percent) in the American League. Hunter Brown was solid, going 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA while also combining a five-pitch mix that included a fantastic changeup. Likewise, Romel Blanco was good, allowing 6.1 hits over nine innings, which was the best mark in baseball.
Closer Josh Hader remains one of the best in the world, and he cut his WHIP from 1,101 to .958. Yet, his 12 home runs allowed must be cut down and likely will be if he continues to work on his mechanics. Setup man Ryan Pressly is still solid at the back end of the bullpen and can still close games.
The lineup is not as powerful as it once was. Regardless, talent still exists. Walker is a nice addition and has hit 32 home runs over his past three seasons. Of course, Jose Altuve is still a 20/20 hitter, even as he ages. Chas McCormick is an elite fielder and can hit the baseball often. Finally, designated hitter Yordan Alvarez is still a major threat to take the baseball into the right-field seats and hit .362 against left-handed pitchers last season.
The Astros will win 87 games if the rotation consistently pitches well and the bullpen finds ways to close out games. Then, Altuve, Walker, McCormick, and Alvarez can lead this makeshift lineup to some great hames.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Astros went a combined 12-14 against the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers in 2024, and both those teams will be better this season. Furthermore, the Astros look weaker with the loss of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. Even if the Astros swing the perfect deal, they still have some ways to go.
Their lineup has some issues. So far, shortstop Jeremy Pena has the best potential, but he is unknown. Paredes hit just .223 in 53 games after joining the Chicago Cubs last season. Right fielder Mauricio Dubon is not there yet. Also, catcher Yainer Diaz has poor pitch framing.
The rotation has some questions. Unfortunately, Cristian Javier might not be ready until the All-Star Break, leaving the final two spots with some questions. Spencer Arrighetti has a pitch-pitch mix, but he also struggled in his first season, going 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA. Moreover, Arrighetti has 171 strikeouts (27.1 percent rate) and 65 walks (10.3 percent rate), showcasing massive inconsistency. Luis Garcia is not so solid in the back end of the bullpen.
The Astros will not win 87 games because this lineup is completely different from this time last year and will face some turmoil. Also, beyond their first three starters, the Astros have major questions in their rotation, and the bullpen is not as elite as it once was.
Final Astros Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Astros still consider themselves part of the equation. However, after going 1-6 against the Yankees and allowing the Tigers to sweep them, there are major questions as to whether the window is shut. Plus, the Mariners and Rangers are better and will offer better competition. I think the Astros will struggle. Yet, I am not willing to call the end of their competitiveness yet. I believe the Astros have one more decent season in them.
Final Astros Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 86.5 Wins (-104)
