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UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev is live from Chicago, Illinois as we're back with another betting prediction and pick for this ranked tilt in the Welterweight (170) Division. No. 11-ranked Geoff Neal of Fortis MMA will take on Brazil's No. 12 Carlos Prates of the Fighting Nerds in what could be a “Fight of the Year” candidate. Check the UFC odds for our Neal-Prates prediction and pick.
Geoff Neal (16-6) has gone 8-4 since joining the UFC back in 2018. Following a loss to future title challenger Shavkat Rakhmonov, Neal dropped a split decision to Ian Machado Garry, but he's hoping to stop another dangerous fighter in Prates. Neal stands 5-foot-11 with a 75-inch reach.
Carlos Prates (21-7) has gone 4-1 inside the UFC since debuting in 2024. Following a DWCS contract, Prates opened his UFC stint with four-straight knockouts inside of two rounds, all resulting in performance bonuses. Following his first loss to Garry, he'll look to get back on his championship track. Prates stands 6-foot-1 with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 319 Odds: Geoff Neal-Carlos Prates Odds
Geoff Neal: +200
Carlos Prates: -245
Over 2.5 rounds: +110
Under 2.5 rounds: -140
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Why Geoff Neal Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Rafael Dos Anjos – TKO (leg injury, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Geoff Neal got back to the win column in a big way against Rafael Dos Anjos, notching his first finish by leg kick in his career. Neal also took Ian Machado Garry to a split decision that could have easily gone his way, so there's no reason to sleep on him as one of the most dangerous talents in this division. He's only been knocked out once in his career, so he could pose the toughest test Prates has seen to this point.
Geoff Neal carries dynamite in his hands and it was apparent during his Shavkat Rakhmonov fight, where he managed to hurt an untouchable opponent several times. Neal is also extremely durable in his own right and does a great job of protecting himself behind the arm guard in between exchanges. He certainly won't bite on the early attempts from Prates and will instead look to counter over the top.
The clearest path to victory for Neal will be remaining patient and allowing Prates to make his own mental mistakes. Neal's cardio is also much more reliable than that of Prates and Neal is much more conscious of conserving his energy throughout a fight. If he's able to keep output consistent during the third round, he could move the needle in his direction if we see a decision.
Why Carlos Prates Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ian Machado Garry – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 16 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Carlos Prates fell for the first time in his UFC career last time out, so it'll be interesting to see how he evolves as a fighter without an aura of invincibility behind him. Given his training with the Fighting Nerds, Prates has a ton of advice and wisdom handed down to him from his teammates. If he's able to make the proper adjustments and take his camps seriously, he has all the potential to be a future champion.
Prates comes in with an extensive kickboxing background with serious power behind his strikes. His power is generated from his long and lean frame, similar to that of an Alex Pereira, but in a slightly smaller package. Nevertheless, Prates has similar striking power where he's able to land the slightest touch and knock his opponents out.
Prates is landing 3.6 significant strikes per minute with 51% accuracy, but it's worth noting that it doesn't take many clean strikes from him to end the fight. While Geoff Neal is landing at a higher rate, Prates will only need a few to seriously wobble his opponent and go for the finish. Nevertheless, his output and cardio will need to be near perfect against a complete opponent like Neal.
Final Geoff Neal-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick
This fight has all the makings of an instant classic given how skilled these two fighters are in the stand-up striking. Geoff Neal is one of the division's best pure boxers and has tested the toughest fighters in the division. Carlos Prates is a Muay Thai savant with strange power and a confidence to finish any opponent.
Geoff Neal is bound to keep his forward pressure throughout this fight, so it'll be interesting to see how Prates fares on the back foot. While his preparation has been a question in the past, he'll need to be perfect heading into this fight.
I think Carlos Prates will make the right adjustments throughout this fight, but it's ultimately a one-shot game for him as he eventually finds it here. However, if we see a similar sluggish version of him that we saw against Garry, Neal will be a live underdog after the first round.
Final Geoff Neal-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick: Carlos Prates (-245); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+110)
