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UFC 319: Dricus Du Plessis versus Khamzat Chimaev continues the prelims with a fight between Edson Barboza and Drakkar Klose in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Barboza-Klose prediction and pick.
Edson Barboza (24-12) enters this weekend’s matchup against Drakkar Klose coming off a unanimous decision loss to Lerone Murphy in May 2024. Barboza was originally slated to fight Steve Garcia in February 2025 but withdrew due to injury. Known for his explosive striking and experience, Barboza will look to rebound at UFC 319.
Drakkar Klose (15-3-1) arrives at UFC 319 following a knockout loss to Joel Álvarez in December 2024. Prior to that, he secured a unanimous decision win over Joaquim Silva in May 2024. Known for his striking and resilience, Klose will look to bounce back against Edson Barboza this weekend.
Here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 319 odds: Edson Barboza-Drakkar Klose odds
Edson Barboza: -135
Drakkar Klose: +114
Over 2.5 rounds: -166
Under 2.5 rounds: +130
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Why Edson Barboza will win
- Last Fight: (L) Lerone Murphy – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 15 (13 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Edson Barboza has a strong case to beat Drakkar Klose at UFC 319 due to his world-class striking, reach advantage, and knockout power. Barboza’s 75-inch reach gives him a notable edge over Klose’s 70-inch reach, allowing him to keep Klose at a distance with precise jabs and devastating leg kicks. Known for explosive combinations, Barboza connects on 4.11 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy, delivering power that can end fights abruptly.
Barboza’s experience and tactical mindset also play a crucial role. Despite absorbing more strikes per minute (4.65) than Klose (3.54), Barboza defends 56% of incoming strikes, showing solid defense to survive exchanges. His takedown defense is robust at 72%, limiting Klose’s wrestling opportunities and enabling Barboza to keep the fight standing, where he is most dangerous.
While Klose applies a high pace and volume with effective striking and decent wrestling, Barboza’s striking precision, power, and reach will likely frustrate Klose’s pressure style. If Barboza controls distance and lands his leg kicks and counters, he can break down Klose and secure a finish or decision win.
Barboza’s striking superiority, combined with his cage experience and fight IQ, makes him the favorite to defeat Klose at UFC 319 in a compelling clash of styles. This fight will test Barboza’s ability to use range and power to neutralize a relentless opponent.
Why Drakkar Klose will win
- Last Fight: (L) Joel Alvarez – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 (6 KO/TKO)
Drakkar Klose has a solid case to defeat Edson Barboza at UFC 319 based on his precision striking, pace, and grappling volume. Klose connects on 4.33 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 55%, both higher than Barboza’s 4.11 strikes per minute and 44% accuracy. This efficiency in striking means Klose can maximize his output while minimizing wasted energy.
Klose’s ability to absorb fewer strikes per minute (3.54 compared to Barboza’s 4.65) and his solid strike defense help him stay fresher throughout the fight. His style focuses on high-volume, tactical striking, which could frustrate Barboza’s more measured and powerful approach. Klose’s capability to maintain a high pace will test Barboza's endurance, especially after a recent 15-month layoff.
On the grappling front, Klose attempts significantly more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.65 vs. Barboza’s 0.45) and boasts strong submission attempts. His ability to control the fight on the ground and keep Barboza on the defensive could neutralize Barboza’s striking power advantage.
Klose’s combination of pressure, pace, and versatile grappling provides him the tools to outwork and outlast Barboza. If he executes a high-pressure game plan and maintains volume, Klose is favored to win a competitive decision at UFC 319.
Final Edson Barboza-Drakkar Klose prediction & pick
Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose at UFC 319 is a fascinating matchup of styles and experience that should deliver an exciting contest. Barboza enters as the favorite due to his world-class striking, 75-inch reach, and knockout power, connecting on 4.11 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy. His precise leg kicks and jabs could keep Klose at bay and control the distance effectively.
However, Klose's efficiency and pace cannot be overlooked. He lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, connecting more efficiently and absorbing fewer strikes. Klose's high-volume, technical striking combined with solid takedown attempts and grappling ability could disrupt Barboza's rhythm.
Barboza’s strong takedown defense (72%) will be tested by Klose’s persistent wrestling, who attempts more takedowns and submission attempts per fight. Klose’s pressure and cardio favor a high-paced fight that may wear down Barboza, especially after Barboza’s recent 15-month layoff.
Klose’s tactical pressure, volume striking, and grappling versatility position him as a slight favorite if he can maintain pace and control. But Barboza’s precision striking and power always pose a threat for a finish. Expect a competitive, technical, and strategic battle at UFC 319 with Klose getting the win via a decision in a close fight.
Final Edson Barboza-Drakkar Klose Prediction & Pick: Drakkar Klose (+114), Over 2.5 Rounds (-166)
