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UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev continues to roll with the Early Prelims as we bring another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Women's Flyweight (125) Division. Fellow Brazilians meet as No. 11 Karine Silva takes on Dione Barbosa in a high-stakes bout. Check the UFC odds for our Silva-Barbosa prediction and pick.
Karine Silva (18-5) is currently 4-1 and ranked in the UFC since debuting in 2022. Notching four consecutive wins (three by submission) to open her UFC run, Silva dropped her first bout most recently against Viviane Araujo. She looks to bounce back as the betting favorite in this one. Silva stands 5-foot-5 with a 67-inch reach.
Dione Barbosa (8-3) has gone 2-1 in the UFC since debuting in 2024. The Contender Series product suffered her first loss to Miranda Maverick, but bounced back with a ‘Performance of the Night' submission in her last win against Diana Belbita. She steps in to save this fight on two weeks notice, standing 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 319 Odds: Karine Silva-Dione Barbosa Odds
Karine Silva: -205
Dione Barbosa: +170
Over 2.5 rounds: -270
Under 2.5 rounds: +200
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Why Karine Silva Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Viviane Araujo – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
Karine Silva suffered her first UFC loss during her last bout, coming against a tested veteran in Vivianne Araujo. While Silva had youth and size on her side, she fell behind on the striking numbers and was outmatched in the grappling. The loss should serve as a learning curve as she begins to see a rise in competition in this division.
Still, Karine Silva has shown her power on the feet prior to her UFC arrival, flipping the script once earning her contract and finishing three of her four wins by submission. Her grappling has transferred extremely well and she's had a physical advantage over most of her opponents up to this point, but she'll be dealing with a slightly bigger opponent this time around.
Ultimately, Silva will have to be the more aggressive fighter despite being the betting favorite and having to pivot opponents. While previous opponent JJ Aldrich would have offered a more conservative look, Silva will likely have to create her own offense during this fight and gain the respect of her opponent.
Why Dione Barbosa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Diana Belbita – SUB (arm triangle choke, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 SUB
Dione Barbosa looked dominant during her last bout, quickly submitting her opponent with a strong arm triangle and leaving the bout unscathed. She's back in this spot on just two weeks notice, so it'll be interesting to see what sort of shape she's in ahead of this fight. Still, she'll pose a more dangerous threat to Silva than the previous opponent with less pressure as she answers the UFC's call.
Barbosa has notched all her career finishes on the ground while never being submitted herself. On the feet, she's still evolving as a kickboxer with her traditional background in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, so she'll need to remain defensively sound with her 67% striking defense against the power shots of Silva.
Barbosa can also stand to frustrate and wear her opponent down if she's able to remain in perpetual motion. Her grappling is too dangerous for Silva to be aggressive with her wrestling, so Barbosa will have to gain respect on the feet early and put together combinations to force her opponent to retreat.
Final Karine Silva-Dione Barbosa Prediction & Pick
With Dione Barbosa stepping in on two weeks notice to save this fight, we actually have a closer matchup than the look the previous opponent could have offered. Both women are at the top of their game in terms of ground control and submission opportunities, so we could see the grappling cancel out as this fight takes place on the feet.
From there, Karine Silva has the slight advantage thanks to her boxing fluidity and ability to bob-and-weave from the pocket. Barbosa is technical in her own right, but succeeds more while throwing straight shots from range. In terms of cardio, we have to give the slight advantage to Barbosa thanks to her experience in three-round fights.
I think this matchup is a bit closer than the betting lines indicate and although Karine Silva is the rightful favorite, this line would be much closer if Barbosa had the benefit of a full camp. Nevertheless, I think there's serious value in her chances to find a submission here while remaining active enough on the feet to tire Silva out.
Final Karine Silva-Dione Barbosa Prediction & Pick: Dione Barbosa (+170)
