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UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev is reaching a feverish pitch from Chicago as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Kill Cliff's Gerald Meerschaert will take on Poland's Michal Oleksiejczuk in an exciting matchup between finishers. Check the UFC odds for our Meerschaert-Oleksiejczuk prediction and pick.
Gerald Meerschaert (37-19) comes in with a 12-11 record with the UFC since 2016. He's been a mainstay within this division and has seen the highest highs and lowest lows, including a two-fight win streak followed by recent back-to-back losses heading into this one. He'll hope to break that losing streak at UFC 319. Meerschaert stands 6-foot-1 with a 77.5-inch reach.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9) has gone 8-7-0-1 throughout his UFC stint since 2017. He's also seen his own tough times with a 2-3 record over his last five, including a three-fight skid during that stretch. Coming in off a win, he'll look for his first winning streak since 2022 as the betting favorite. Oleksiejczuk stands six feet tall with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 319 Odds: Geral Meerschaert-Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
Gerald Meerschaert: +180
Michal Oleksiejczuk: -218
Over 1.5 rounds: +105
Under 1.5 rounds: -135
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Why Gerald Meerschaert Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Brad Tavares – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 29 SUB
Gerald Meerschaert fell short during his last fight against a tough opponent in Brad Tavares, but managed to see a decision and avoid a knockout despite being listed as the underdog. This comes after quickly being submitted by Reinier de Ridder, so Meerschaert is looking for a win to get him back on track. Given his success in finishing each one of his 12 UFC wins, Meerschaert could welcome a wild brawl during this fight.
Of his 12 UFC wins, 11 have come by way of submission as he holds the record for most in the Middleweight Division. Oleksiejczuk's six losses by submission is more than any other method in his career, so Meerschaert can certainly see success if he's able to repeatedly put Oleksiejczuk in bad spots. In order to close the distance and reach him, he'll have to avoid the knockout blows coming back his way first and foremost.
Despite this, Meerschaert is still a manageable underdog in this fight and has been in this spot countless times in the past. Oleksiejczuk won't offer anything out of the ordinary besides forward pressure and aggression, so look for Meerschaert to work his veteran tactics and find submission attempts throughout this one.
Why Michal Oleksiejczuk Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Sedriques Dumas – TKO (right hook, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 15 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Michal Oleksiejczuk rose to the occasion during his last bout in taking out a rising prospect like Sedriques Dumas rather quickly and efficiently. This came following a three-fight losing streak where he was submitted twice, but Oleksiejczuk has since moved his fight camp to Brazil to train with the Fighting Nerds, opening up his aggressive striking style and working on his ground game. The switch clearly helped during his fight with Dumas, so we could be seeing a newer, more improved version of Oleksiejczuk moving forward.
With six of his nine career losses coming by way of submission, training with a fighter like Caio Borralho will certainly help him in preparing for bad positions against Meerschaert. Oleksiejczuk already has the better striking technique opposite of his opponent, so making his defensive grappling even stronger will only benefit him during this matchup.
All in all, Oleksiejczuk is expected to fight his usual brawling style, but having improved jiu jitsu to fall back on will certainly help his confidence. Oleksiejczuk is also extremely scrappy with his ground-and-pound, so expect him to mix some of that in while he's scrambling and looking for top position.
Final Gerald Meerschaert-Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun fight between two veterans in the division who are looking to find some consistency as of late. Gerald Meerschaert is looking to break a losing streak with a strong opportunity to do so given his grappling advantage over Oleksiejczuk.
However, Michal Oleksiejczuk is the far more dangerous striker and has been refining his grappling skills with one of the current best fight camps in the UFC. If we see his grappling make significant improvements once again, this fight could be much more lopsided than the betting odds indicate.
For this reason, we're going to roll with Michal Oleksiejczuk to get the win, thanks to his higher ceiling for improvement at this point of his career. Gerald Meerschaert poses a nice challenge, but Oleksiejczuk seems to have all the tools to finish this fight.
Final Gerald Meerschaert-Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction & Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk (-218); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-135)
