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James Madison looks for their first-ever bowl win as they face Air Force. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Armed Forces Bowl James Madison-Air Force prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Armed Forces Bowl was first placed in 2003, under the name the Fort Worth Bowl. Since being rebranded in 2006, one of the service academy teams has traditionally played in the game. Only six times has this game not featured one of the Service Academy teams, most recently in 2020 with Mississippi State beat a ranked Tulsa squad. Air Force is playing in this game for a seventh time and has gone 2-4 in their previous six trips. Meanwhile, James Madison is playing in their first-ever bowl game.
James Madison was not initially bowl-eligible due to transition rules from the FCS ranks, but without enough 6-6 teams to fill all the bowls, they are in this one. James Madison went 11-1 this year, and after starting 10-0, would suffer their only loss of the season to Appalachian State. It was an overtime loss that ended their undefeated season. They did finish first in their division in the Sun Belt but were not permitted to play in the championship game. They will also be playing this game under an interim coach, as their head coach went to take the job at Indiana.
Meanwhile, the Air Force enters the game at 8-4 on the year. They started the year at 8-0 but were upset by Army to fall for the first time in the season. After that, they would lose three more games in a row, falling to 8-4. With losses at the end of the year to UNLV and Boise State, they would finish fourth in the Mountain West.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Armed Forces Bowl Odds: James Madison-Air Force Odds
James Madison: -2.5 (-106)
Air Force: +2.5 (-114)
Over: 41.5 (-102)
Under: 41.5 (-120)
How to Watch James Madison vs. Air Force
Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT
TV: ABC
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why James Madison Will Cover The Spread
James Madison enters 15th in the nation in points per game this year while sitting 26th in the nation in yards per game this year. They were 92nd in the nation in rushing yards per game while sitting 14th in passing yards per game. They have been led by Jordan McCloud at quarterback. McCloud will be transferring after this year but is expected to play in this game. He enters the game with 260 completions on 381 attempts this year for 3,377 yards and 32 touchdowns. He was amazing coming down the stretch run of the season. In his final five games, McCloud through for 17 touchdowns. Still, he had just one in the game with App State.
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McCloud is also having a solid year on the ground. He scored eight times this year, with 387 rushing yards. Kaelon Black and Ty Son Lawson lead the way in the backfield. Black has 619 yards on the ground this year while being great after contact. He has 411 yards after contact this year. Meanwhile, Black has scored once this year. Lawson has 569 yards this year, with five touchdowns. He is in the transfer portal, but like the other James Madison players in the portal, he is expected to play in this game.
Meanwhile, James Madison has two great receivers. Elijah Sarratt comes into the game with 74 receptions 1.084 yards and eight scores this year. Sarratt comes into the game expected to play, although like McCloud and Lawson, he is in the portal as well. The second great receiver is Reggie Brown. Brown comes in with 1,010 yards this year with nine scores. Further, Zach Horton, the tight end, comes in with six scores.
The James Madison defense comes in 19th in opponent points per game, while sitting 33rd in yards per game. They were first in the nation in rushing yards per game against, while sitting 127th in passing yards against per game. Jalen Green was the best player on this defense, but he will be missing this game. Still, they have Jamree Kromah. Kormah has nine sacks this year while having 40 quarterback pressures this year.
Why Air Force Will Cover The Spread
Air Force ranked 63rd in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting 85th in yards per game. They led the nation in rushing attempts, and percent of rushing plays, and were second in the nation in rushing yards per game. Zac Larrier could be back for this game. He has not played since the loss to Army. On the year, he has passed for just 748 yards but does have six touchdowns. Also, he has thrown just two interceptions this year, both in the loss to Army. Larrier was also solid on the ground this year, with 591 yards and five scores.
On the ground, Emmanuel Michel led the way this year. He ran for 725 yards this year, good for 4.3 yards per carry on the season. Further, he scored nine times this year. Air Force could be missing a lot without one of their top backs though. John Lee Eldrige is in the transfer portal. He accounted for 547 yards and six scores this year. That will mean Dylan Carson will need to step up in this game. He has 463 yards and two scores on the year.
Air Force could also be getting Jared Roznos back for this game. He has 332 yards this year and two scores. He also did all that in nine games this year.
On defense, the Air Force ranked 15th in points allowed per game while sitting sixth in the nation in yards allowed per game. PJ Ramsey was named to the first-team All-Mountain West this year. He was solid all year long, sitting with eight sacks and 37 quarterback pressures, while also having 22 stops for offensive failures in the run game. Further, Ramsey had just eight missed tackles all year long.
Final James Madison-Air Force Prediction & Pick
Air Force was beaten up down the stretch run and struggled heavily. They are a run-focused team, and now facing a JMU defense that is one of the best at getting in the backfield. They lead the nation in tackles for a loss this year, and the biggest issues they have had this year on defense were against pass-heavy teams. Still, this may be worth waiting until closer to game time to be sure who is playing for James Madison. If they have their full complement, they will cover, but if not the under is still a safe play.
Final James Madison-Air Force Prediction & Pick: Under 41.5 (-120)
