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Jannik Sinner takes on Mariano Navone at the Italian Open. Our Italian Open odds series has our Sinner Navone prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner Navone.
This is it. This is the long-anticipated return to the tennis tour for World No. 1 Jannik Sinner. He just finished serving a three-month ban for doping in a highly controversial case. He gets to return at his home-nation tournament. He will naturally need to shake off some rust after not playing a competitive tour match for more than three months.
Sinner was red-hot when the doping suspension went into effect in February. The man who won the 2024 U.S. Open and then the 2024 ATP Finals was able to pick up where he left off and start 2025 with a bang. Sinner won his second consecutive Australian Open championship. He has won each of the last three hardcourt major tournaments. Now he wants to win a clay and grass major. However, before he can go to the French Open as the favorite, he has to re-establish himself in Rome in front of an adoring home crowd. Sinner would like to play at least three matches to feel he has played himself back into some degree of form and fitness before he goes to Paris to compete for his first Roland Garros title.
Here are the Jannik Sinner-Mariano Navone Italian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Italian Open Odds: Sinner-Navone Odds
Game Spread:
Sinner -5.5 (-110)
Navone +5.5 (-122)
Moneyline:
Sinner -1600
Navone +860
To Win First Set:
Sinner -600
Navone +390
Total Games In Match:
Over 19.5 (-120)
Under 19.5 (-110)
Total Games Won:
Sinner over 12.5 (-104)
Sinner under 12.5 (-130)
Navone over 7.5 (-110)
Navone under 7.5 (-120)
How to Watch Italian Open
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT
TV: Tennis Channel
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Jannik Sinner Will Win
Jannik Sinner is fresh and rested after months away from the tour. He is playing in front of his home-nation fans and will get all the crowd support in every match he plays. He is the World No. 1 player and by far the most consistent player in men's tennis since the start of 2024. Carlos Alcaraz has won multiple major tournaments in that period of time, but Sinner has won more (3-2). He is a consistent ballstriker who has stayed healthy. He is not a tennis player you ordinarily want to bet against. Mariano Navone is a solid, competent pro player, but he does not have the huge weapons or imposing qualities which should seriously threaten Sinner in this match.
Why Mariano Navone Will Win
This is a situation in which Jannik Sinner is coming back to the tour after a very long absence. Keep in mind that November and December represent the tennis offseason, generally around five weeks for Sinner and other players who play at the season-ending ATP Finals. Sinner had to stop for the offseason, then restart for the 2025 season and the Australian Open. Then he had to shut everything down again while serving his suspension. Now he has to gear back up again for the clay season and the rest of his 2025 calendar. Athletes, tennis players very much included, are creatures of habit. They depend on rhythm and routine. Sinner has been out of this rhythm and routine for several months. Sure, he can practice, but that does not adequately or fully simulate live action. One can and should expect some rust from Sinner in his first return match. This gives Navone a unique opportunity to keep the match close, cover the spread, and maybe even pull off the outright upset. Navone to win the first set at a fat plus money price is an intriguing option to look at.
Final Sinner-Navone Prediction & Pick
The lean is to Navone because of Sinner's rust, but really, this is a match in which it is hard to know what will happen. That's not the best kind of sporting event to bet on. Pass.
Final Sinner-Navone Prediction & Pick: Navone +5.5 games
