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The Buffalo Sabres look to get their first win of the year as they host the Tampa Bay Lightning. It is time to continue our NHL odds series with a Lighting-Sabres prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Lightning come in sitting at 1-2 on the year. They opened the season with a win over the Nashville Predators. They opened the game with a Nikita Kucherov goal, and he would add a second in the game, as Nicholas Paul scored two as well in a 5-3 win. Still, the next game on the road, they would fall 6-4 to the Red Wings. Then, it was a 5-2 loss to the Senators last time out. Tampa has not been stout on defense this year, and the result has been a lot of goals and two losses.
The Sabres enter the game at 0-2 on the year. They struggled heavily in the first game of the season against the Rangers. They gave up two goals in the first period and the Sabres would be down 3-1 going into the third. Chris Kreider scored a short-handed goal and then Jacob Trouba scored an empty netter to win 5-1. Then the Islanders hosted the Sabres. The Islanders scored twice in the first period, but Buffalo scored in the second and third periods to tie it up. Still, The Islanders would score again to take a 3-2 win.
Here are the NHL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Lightning vs. Sabres Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning: +104
Buffalo Sabres: -125
Over: 6.5 (-148)
Under: 6.5 (+120)
How to Watch Lightning vs. Sabres
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Lightning Will Win
Article Continues Below
The Tampa Bay Lightning are led by their top line with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Brandon Hagel. Kucherov has two goals already this year with two assists, leading to four points. Still, he has a minus-three rating this year. Point has three assists with two of them coming on the power play this season, but has yet to score a goal. Finally, Hagel has two goals and an assist this season but also has a minus-two rating.
Meanwhile, the Lightning are going to be missing Steven Stamkos most likely in this one. He is day-to-day right now, and that is a fair amount of production missing. He has played in two games this year, with two goals and two assists that are missing. They will have Victor Hedman on defense. He had a goal and four assists this year. The goal is on the power play.
This year the Lightning are right now three for nine on the power play. The one game they did not score on the power play was the last one without Steven Stamkos. The Lightning have been good on the penalty kill this year. They have killed six of seven man-down chances this year.
The Lightning are expected to send Jonas Johansson to protect the net today. He is 1-1 on the year with a .889 save percentage and a 4.09 goals-against average. Last time out, he saved 36 of 41 shots against the Red Wings, taking the loss. He has started just 29 games in his career with a 12-14-4 record and a 3.40 goals-against average.
Why The Sabres Will Win
The Sabres are not scoring well this year. They have scored just three goals in the two games so far this season. The biggest issue is the top line is not scoring. The goals have come from Casey Mittelstadt, JJ Peterka, and Jordan Greenway. Peterka is on the second line, while Mittlestadt and Greenway sit on the third line.
The top line starts with Jeff Skinner who has three shots on goal and a minus-three rating. He has yet to score a goal or have an assist. Tage Thompson has seven shots this season but also had no goals or assists with a minus-three rating. Alex Tuch has three shots on goal but also does not have a goal or assist. With no points from the top line, that is something that needs to change for Buffalo in this game.
The Sabres have been good on the penalty kill this year. They have had seven penalty-kill opportunities this season and allowed just one goal this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo has not done well on the power play. They have received five opportunities on the power play this year, and have yet to score a goal. Buffalo is also not getting enough shots on goal. They have been outshot in both of their games this year, and have yet to shoot over 30 times in a game this season.
The Sabres will be sending Devon Levi to protect the net today. he is 0-2 on the year with a 3.55 goals-against average and a .881 save percentage. He has made just nine starts in his career. In those nine starts, he has a 5-4 record with a 3.07 goals-against average and a .900 save percentage. He has let in two or more goals in every game so far of his career, but for the most part has been solid, rarely allowing more than three goals.
Final Lightning-Sabres Prediction & Pick
This is a match-up between two teams that both desperately want a win. It is still early in the season but, falling early into a 0-3 hole is not something Buffalo can afford. Still, the top line has struggled all year. They will draw the defensive pairing of Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev. These two are two of the best in the NHL at cutting off passing lanes and limiting shots. They are also two of the best on the penalty kill. With a front line struggling so heavily, they are not going to get enough shots on goal to score enough to win.
Further, while the Lightning is going to be without Stamkos, they can get plenty of shots on goal. Volume is not a bad thing for Devon Levis, but, except for two games last year, he continued to hover around a .900 save percentage any time he was in the net. The goals went up when the shot volume did. Today, he will keep that .900 save percentage but face too many shots for it to make a difference.
Final Lightning-Sabres Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay ML (+104)
