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We're set for another betting prediction and pick for the UFC Mexico City Prelims as we turn attention towards the Women's Strawweight (115) Division for this next bout. Mexico's No. 11-ranked Loopy Godinez will take on Brazil's Julia Polastri as both women look to mount a winning streak. Check the UFC odds series for our Godinez-Polastri prediction and pick.
Loopy Godinez (12-5) has gone 7-5 inside the UFC since 2021. After four consecutive wins, she's dropped back-to-back fights against top contenders in Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. Now, she'll look to re-establish herself within the top-10 rankings with a win as the betting favorite. Godinez stands 5-foot-2 with a 61-inch reach.
Julia Polastri (13-4) has gone 1-1 since entering the UFC roster in 2024. She lost a unanimous decision to an undefeated Josefine Knutsson during her debut, but bounced back with a split decision win over Corey McKenna during his most recent bout. She'll hope for another upset as the betting underdog. Polastri stands 5-foot-2 with a 63.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Odds: Loopy Godinez-Julia Polastri Odds
Loopy Godinez: -238
Julia Polastri: +195
Over 2.5 rounds: -620
Under 2.5 rounds: +400
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Why Loopy Godinez Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Mackenzie Dern – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 3 SUB
Loopy Godinez saw a massive jump in competition during her last two fights in having to face Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. A typically grappler herself, Godinez was met with two of the better grapplers in the division was clearly out-matched by the experience of both opponents. At 31 years old, she's just now entering her peak as a fighter and the losses may have come at a good time considering she's always working on improving her skills. Expect Godinez to be very active with her grappling during this one as she tightens things up during this training camp.
With each appearance, Godinez' striking has taken steps forward and she looks much more comfortable standing and trading with opponents. She lands 48% of her significant strikes and bodes very well defensively with a 63% rate on the other end. If she can manage to move from wild exchanges and set the pace during this fight, she should be able to control things with her solid mix of striking and grappling.
Why Julia Polastri Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Corey McKenna – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Julia Polastri was on the right side of a very close decision against Corey McKenna as we saw her having to dig deep during the final round to get the nod in her favor. She's definitely one to absorb a ton of shots if she finds herself in a brawl, so this fight will be more about landing her shots and moving out of range from her opponent. She's also very skilled with her submissions on the ground and could pose a threat from there if Godinez decides to initiate the grappling.
Polastri is quick to take the center of the octagon and she finds success off pressuring her opponents against the cage. Her takedown defense is a very solid 61% and she's landed 80% of the few takedowns she's attempted thus far. Stuffing the first few attempts from Godinez will bode greatly for her confidence in deciding where this fight take place and we can expect her to turn the pressure up if she's able to negate some of her opponent's offense.
Final Loopy Godinez-Julia Polastri Prediction & Pick
This fight is a great matchup as both women are in the prime of their fighting careers. Loopy Godinez is the rightful favorite here simply due to her experience against top-level UFC competition. She's also willing to learn from her mistakes and given two consecutive losses heading into this one, we should see the best version of Loopy Godinez coming out on Saturday night.
Julia Polastri is much more green when it comes to fighting at a UFC level, but her last decision over Corey McKenna showed that she's willing to stand and trade while fighting towards a three-round decision. It'll be interesting to see how she handles fighting at elevation for the first time, but we should see her push the striking to a frantic pace nonetheless.
We have to give the slight edge to Loopy Godinez thanks to her effective grappling, but she'll have to be wary against a strong submission artist like Julia Polastri. Still, Godinez' striking and ability to adapt her fight plan will be the biggest advantage during this fight, so we'll roll with the hometown Mexican fighter to notch the win here.
Final Loopy Godinez-Julia Polastri Prediction & Pick: Loopy Godinez (-238)
