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The TCU Horned Frogs are set to face the Arizona Wildcats. Check out our March Madness odds series, which includes our TCU Arizona prediction, odds, and pick.
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Starting with the 1968-1969 college basketball season, there were 48 seasons immediately preceding the arrival of Jamie Dixon as TCU's head coach (before the 2016-2017 campaign). In those 48 seasons, TCU won one NCAA Tournament game. It took Dixon only six seasons to win one NCAA Tournament game with the Horned Frogs after they crushed Seton Hall on Friday night. TCU continues to impress, and the Frogs will take the court on Sunday knowing they have won their school's first NCAA Tournament game since 1987. This is a powerful form of confidence. Given how much the top seeds have struggled — Baylor lost, Kansas very nearly lost to Creighton — Arizona should not feel especially comfortable in this game. It is something to consider when making a TCU Arizona prediction. TCU is battle-hardened as a result of competing in the Big 12. Arizona competed in a Pac-12 which put only three teams in the NCAA Tournament and has just two in the Round of 32.
Arizona has had a spectacular season, but as this game arrives, March Madness odds analysts are obviously wondering if Kerr Kriisa, injured in the Pac-12 Tournament, is going to be able to play and be effective against TCU. Kriisa did not play in Friday's win over Wright State, a point of great interest to anyone thinking about a TCU Arizona pick. If Kriisa can't go, Arizona's ceiling becomes much lower. The Wildcats are still a very capable team and a Final Four contender without him, but the margins become much smaller. If TCU can slow down the pace of this game and rope Arizona into a halfcourt slugfest, the Frogs have to think they can stay in the hunt and earn a chance to win in the final few minutes.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the TCU-Arizona odds:
March Madness Odds: TCU-Arizona Odds
TCU: +9.5 (-110)
Arizona: -9.5 (-110)
Over: 142.5 (-110)
Under: 142.5 (-110)
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Why TCU Could Cover the Spread
The Horned Frogs are playing extremely well. They have nothing to lose. They have made history for their school and are aware of that fact. They are tough and physical. Arizona might not have Kerr Kriisa available, which is a significant limitation placed on the Wildcats' offense and their ability to create the racehorse basketball game they want.
Why Arizona Could Cover the Spread
The Wildcats beat UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament championship game without Kerr Kriisa. More than that, they came back from a 10-point deficit to do so. This team is so much more than Kriisa himself. They have lots of offensive options even without Kriisa. They have plenty of size and length in the paint and can get into a physical battle if that's what it takes to win. They can cover the spread with their obvious talent advantage.
Final TCU-Arizona Prediction & Pick
Arizona should win, but the large point spread plus the uncertainty about Kriisa makes TCU the better pick here.
Final TCU-Arizona Pick: TCU +9.5
