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The Texas Longhorns are set to face the Purdue Boilermakers. Check out our March Madness odds series, which includes our Texas Purdue prediction, odds, and pick.
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If you are a March Madness odds historian, you know this game feels pretty familiar. In 1990, Texas was the lower seed against a No. 2 seed from Purdue which was trying to get to the Final Four and felt it had a team capable of pulling off the feat. Sure enough, Texas upset Purdue and shattered the Boilermakers' dreams.
The added parallel to 1990 within the context of this Texas Purdue game is that in that year's Big Dance, the No. 1 seed in Purdue's region had already lost when the Boilermakers played Texas. Purdue was the highest remaining seed in its region when it took the court against Texas. The opportunity was there, and Texas shattered it.
Fast-forward to 2022. It's the same scenario. Top-seeded Baylor is out of the East Region after losing to eighth-seeded North Carolina. In 1990, eighth-seeded North Carolina beat top-seeded Oklahoma to clear the path for Purdue. With Kentucky already having lost to Saint Peter's, Purdue is the highest remaining seed in the East Region heading into this game against the Longhorns. Can the Boilermakers handle the pressure this time? It's the question you need to answer when arriving at your Texas Purdue prediction.
Let's say more about these two teams in 2022. Texas went through a very bumpy ride in the regular season, but the Big 12 went unbeaten in the first round of this tournament (before Baylor's loss to North Carolina). It's a tough conference. Texas looked refreshed in the first round against Virginia Tech as a result of not having to play a Big 12 team. The Longhorns could derive the same benefit from playing Purdue.
The Boilermakers steamrolled Yale in the first round. It was a stress-free game coach Matt Painter wanted as he tries to lift Purdue to its first Final Four since 1980. The Boilermakers thrived on offense, and given how inconsistent they are on defense, this team will need to score in the 70s if not the low 80s in order to continuously advance in the bracket. This is something to remember when making a Texas Purdue pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Texas-Purdue odds:
March Madness Odds: Texas-Purdue Odds
Texas: +3.5 (-110)
Purdue: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 134.5 (-110)
Under: 134.5 (-110)
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Why Texas Could Cover the Spread
The Longhorns are a better defensive team than Purdue. Texas has been slugging it out in the rugged Big 12 all season long, while Purdue could not win a Big Ten Conference in which Wisconsin — which barely beat Colgate on Friday night — and Illinois (which almost lost to Chattanooga) shared the championship. Texas could legitimately be viewed as the better team here.
Why Purdue Could Cover the Spread
The Boilermakers' size and length could overwhelm Texas. Jaden Ivey could outscore Texas. He is probably the most talented player on the floor. If he plays like it, Purdue wins.
Final Texas-Purdue Prediction & Pick
Purdue might win, but in a game which figures to come down to the last 30 seconds, picking the team getting 3.5 points seems like the better play.
Final Texas-Purdue Pick: Texas +3.5
