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The Mariners make the trip to Cleveland to face the Guardians! Both teams are playing very well this season and both should be headed towards the postseason thanks in large part to great pitching from both teams. Our MLB odds series has our Mariners-Guardians prediction, odds, and pick for Tuesday.
Mariners-Guardians Projected Starters
Bryce Miller vs. Triston McKenzie
Bryce Miller (5-5) with a 3.48 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched seven innings and gave up zero runs on two hits with two walks and eight strikeouts in a Mariners win.
2024 Road Splits: (1-3) 5.94 ERA
Triston McKenzie (3-3) with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched 5.1 innings and gave up two runs on four hits with two walks and four strikeouts in a Guardians win.
2024 Home Splits: (2-1) 3.98 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Guardians Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+172)
Moneyline: +106
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-210)
Moneyline: -124
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How to Watch Mariners vs. Guardians
Time: 6:40 pm ET
TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes / ROOT Sports
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mariners Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mariners have been playing well recently and have a 43-31 record. They have won seven of their last eight games and three straight heading into this series. The Mariners have struggled behind the plate this season, but their pitching staff is a top-10 unit in the MLB. Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco, Ty France, and Mitch Garver are standouts on offense despite their struggles. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller have all been at varying levels of good to great for the Mariners pitching-wise and have carried the team when needed.
The Mariners are starting Bryce Miller on the mound where he has a 5-5 record, a 3.48 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP. Through 82.2 innings, he has allowed 34 runs on 57 hits with 24 walks and 80 strikeouts. In his 14 starts this season, the Mariners have an 8-6 record. Miller has been very good this season, and he faces a Cleveland offense that has talent but has only been average so far this season.
The Mariners have talent, but they have struggled across the board this season behind the plate. They are 28th in batting average at .223 after finishing last season at .242. Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Ty France lead the Mariners in most batting categories. Rodriguez leads in batting average at .268 and in total hits at 78. Raleigh then leads in home runs at 12 and in RBI at 43. Finally, Ty France leads in OBP at .329. This matchup against McKenzie will be difficult because he has been having a solid year on the mound and the Mariners have struggled on offense as a team.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have been great this season with a 44-25 heading into this series. However, They have lost three out of their last four games and two straight leading into this game. Their bats have jumped into the top 10 of the league, while their pitching has been a top-10 staff. Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Tyler Freeman, and Josh Naylor have carried the Guardians on offense. Tanner Bibee, Triston McKenzie, and Ben Lively have held down the fort in the pitching staff despite Shane Bieber getting Tommy John Surgery. They have been one of the best teams in the MLB this season, and not just the AL.
The Guardians are starting Triston McKenzie on the mound and he has a 3-3 record, a 4.10 ERA, and a 1.41 WHIP. McKenzie has allowed 34 runs on 58 hits with 38 walks and 65 strikeouts through 68 innings. In his 13 starts so far, the Guardians are 10-3. McKenzie has been solid this season but needs to be more consistent for the Guardians. This is a favorable matchup for him with all of the struggles the Mariners have had on offense.
The Guardians are a talented team behind the plate but are average statistically. They are 16th in team batting average at .242 after finishing last season at .259. The offense is led by Jose Ramirez in almost every batting category. Ramirez leads the way in batting average at .269, in home runs at 18, in RBI at 62, in OBP at .330, and in hits at 71. This offense has shown flashes, but they get a difficult matchup against Bryce Miller with how well he has played this season and how he has been a key for the Mariners' success as a team.
Final Mariners-Guardians Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a pitching duel between Miller for the Mariners and McKenzie for the Guardians. However, the deciding factor is that the Guardians also have a better offense than the Mariners. That combination favors the Guardians, especially at home. Expect the Guardians to cover and win to get back on track at home in this matchup.
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Final Mariners-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-210)
