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The Miami Marlins are on the road to take on the Washington Nationals Friday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Nationals prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Marlins-Nationals Projected Starters
Edward Cabrera vs. DJ Herz
Edward Cabrera (4-6) with a 1.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 83 innings pitched, 90K/43BB, .235 oBA
Last Start: vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Win, 7 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 8 starts, 6.69 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 35 innings pitched, 43K/19BB, .275 oBA
DJ Herz (3-7) with a 3.82 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 75.1 innings pitched, 93K/29BB, .220 oBA
Last Start: at Pittsburgh Pirates: 5 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 10 starts, 3.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 47.1 innings pitched, 61K/18BB, .231 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Nationals Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-176)
Moneyline: +126
Washington Nationals: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -148
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How to Watch Marlins vs. Nationals
Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Florida, MASN
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Edward Cabrera has the ability to be very good on the mound. That has been on display since the beginning of August. In his seven starts in that span, Cabrera has has a 2.95 ERA in 39.2 innings pitched. He has struck out 34, and allowed just 32 hits, as well. Take away his start against the Philadelphia Phillies on August 14th, and his numbers are even better. If Cabrera can continue to pitch well, the Marlins are going to win this game.
Miami is squaring off with a very good pitcher. However, Herz has a few flaws in his game. Herz has a pretty high average exit velocity, he does not get a lot of ground balls, and he has a high walk rate. The Marlins have to stay patient at the plate in this game. If they can take their walks, they will force Herz into the zone which will allow them to hit the ball hard in the air. Doing this will help them win the game.
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
DJ Herz does have his won struggles, but the kid can pitch. In fact, Herz has already dominated the Marlins once this season. In that game, Herz went six innings, allowed just one hit, did not walk a single batter, and struck out 13. The Marlins have the highest chase rate in the MLB, and the eighth highest whiff rate. Herz may not have the same start, but he should still be able to dominate the Marlins in this game.
Just like Herz, Cabrera has some command issues. Cabrera is just the 10th percentile in walk rate, and he has a low chase rate. With that, Cabrera gives up a lot of barrels, and hard hits. He walks a lot of batters, and when he is in the zone, opposing teams hit him hard. If the Nationals can stay patient, they will hit the ball hard when Cabrera is forced into the zone. Doing this well allow the Nationals to put up multiple runs and win this game.
Final Marlins-Nationals Prediction & Pick
This can turn out to be a great pitching matchup. These two young pitchers have the ability to shut down opposing teams when they are at their best. For this game, I think Herz will outshine Cabrera. I will be taking the Nationals to win this game straight up.
Final Marlins-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Nationals ML (-148)
