UFC Vegas 111: Gabriel Bonfim versus Randy Brown continues on the main card with a fight between Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Schnell-Morales prediction and pick.
Matt Schnell (17-9) snapped a three-fight losing streak in April, earning a competitive unanimous decision over Jimmy Flick. Prior to that, Schnell fell to Cody Durden by submission and Steve Erceg by knockout, showing grit and strong submission defense as he comes into his fight this weekend against Joseph Morales.
Joseph Morales (13-2) rides a five-fight win streak into UFC Vegas 111, capped by a TUF 33 finale victory via triangle choke over Alibi Idiris. Prior to that, Morales took a split decision over Sidemar Honorio and submitted Anthony Do, showing a balanced attack as he comes into his fight this weekend against Matt Schnell.
Here are the UFC Vegas 111 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 111 odds: Matt Schnell-Joseph Morales odds
Matt Schnell: +260
Joseph Morales: -325
Over 1.5 Rounds: -175
Under 1.5 Rounds: +135
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Why Matt Schnell will win
- Last Fight: (W) Jimmy Flick – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 11 (2 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Matt Schnell’s slick submission game and Octagon experience make him a dangerous test for Joseph Morales at UFC Vegas 111. Schnell owns five UFC finishes, displaying the ability to snatch necks and attack armbars with lightning speed, which can exploit Morales’ mid-fight scrambling.
Morales is on a hot streak, but Schnell’s level of UFC opposition has been much higher. The veteran thrives when the fight gets wild, weathering adversity and finding moments to reverse or lock up a finish in scrambles, often against technically sound grapplers.
Schnell mixes a sharp jab and leg kicks to keep Morales guessing on the feet, which sets up opportunities to clinch and transition to the mat. If Schnell dictates the grappling tempo and stays composed during Morales’ surges, his finishing instincts become the difference-maker.
Durability and heart also favor Schnell, who’s bounced back from setbacks and proven he can fight through adversity under pressure. Expect Schnell to use his experience, opportunistic grappling, and anti-wrestling to edge out Morales, either scoring a late submission or controlling exchanges for a decision win this Saturday at UFC Vegas 111.
Why Joseph Morales will win
- Last Fight: (W) Alibi Idiris – SUB R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (2 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Joseph Morales enters UFC Vegas 111 with momentum and a well-rounded skill set that matches up well against Matt Schnell. Fresh off a four-fight win streak and the TUF 33 winner, Morales blends crisp boxing with crafty grappling, allowing him to dictate exchanges wherever the fight goes.
Schnell is dangerous off his back, but Morales has shown strong submission defense and an ability to control position during scrambles. Morales’s ability to avoid risky spots on the mat and land effective ground-and-pound gives him a key edge if the fight hits the canvas.
Standing, Morales utilizes sharp counters and manages range with a stiff jab, adept at punishing overextensions—something Schnell has suffered from against high-level strikers in the past. Morales’s youth, athleticism, and recent surge in confidence suggest he will push the pace.
If Morales keeps Schnell moving backward and avoids being drawn into extended grappling exchanges, his pace and accuracy should rack up damage as rounds wear on. Expect Morales to mix up his striking and wrestling, wear down Schnell, and either find a late finish or take a competitive decision victory this Saturday at UFC Vegas 111.
Final Matt Schnell-Joseph Morales prediction & pick
This flyweight matchup between Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales at UFC Vegas 111 should produce plenty of scrambles and submission threats. Schnell is the more active striker, landing double the significant strikes per minute compared to Morales, and he boasts a notable height and reach advantage.
However, Morales comes in as the favorite thanks to stronger form and superior durability—Schnell has suffered stoppage losses in all seven of his UFC defeats. Morales scored a highlight TUF finale submission and has averaged nearly three submission attempts per fight, illustrating a dangerous finishing instinct.
Schnell’s jab and fluid transitions could give Morales trouble early, especially if Schnell can drag him into chaos and capitalize on a scramble. But Morales is the younger, fresher fighter, and his ability to mix takedowns, avoid big shots, and relentlessly pursue submission opportunities is likely to wear Schnell down.
Expect Morales to set the pace, control grappling phases, and gradually assert himself as the fight moves into the later rounds. The likely result is a submission or a skilled decision nod for Morales, who rides momentum into this pivotal co-main event at UFC Vegas 111.
Final Matt Schnell-Joseph Morales Prediction & Pick: Joseph Morales (-325), Over 1.5 Rounds (-175)
