UFC Qatar has reached its final destination as we bring you our betting prediction and pick for this Main Event between contenders in the Lightweight (155) Division. No. 1-ranked Arman Tsarukyan of Armenia will take on fan-favorite No. 6 Dan Hooker of New Zealand. Check our UFC odds series for the Tsarukyan-Hooker prediction and pick.
Arman Tsarukyan (22-3) has gone 9-2 since 2019 en route to becoming the UFC's No. 1 Lightweight contender. He's riding a three-fight winning streak capped off with a win over Charles Oliveira, but notably had to pull out of his title shot against Islam Makhachev due to an injury. Now, he makes his return looking to earn a title shot once again. Tsarukyan stands 5-foot-7 with a 72.5-inch reach.
Dan Hooker (24-12) has gone 14-8 inside the UFC since joining the roster in 2014. Following back-to-back losses in 2021-22, Hooker has now won three consecutive fights with a most recent win over Mateusz Gamrot. He's proven he still belongs and could call his next shot if he's able to take down the No. 1 contender. Hooker stands six feet tall with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar Odds: Arman Tsarukyan-Dan Hooker Odds
Arman Tsarukyan: -625
Dan Hooker: +455
Over 3.5 rounds: +100
Under 3.5 rounds: -130
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Why Arman Tsarukyan Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Charles Oliveira – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Following his win over Charles Oliveira, Arman Tsarukyan showed every bit of why he's the No. 1 overall contender at lightweight. There's no denying that his rare breed of world-class striking and grappling would be a massive challenge to champion Islam Makhachev at this point of their careers. However, when given the opportunity, Tsarukyan fell to injury and will now have to earn his shot once again. He may not be overlooking Dan Hooker completely, but this is certainly a stepping stone for Tsarukyan to earn back his title shot once again.
Tsarukyan is a world-class grappler, both in wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and is constantly competing in tournaments outside of mixed martial arts. His control from the top is very frustrating for opponents to deal with and his blend of strength and athleticism makes him a nightmare to transition with on the ground. If he manages to get Dan Hooker on the ground, the discrepancy in grappling will become apparent quickly.
As long as Tsarukyan doesn't make any grave mistakes and treats Dan Hooker like a worthy opponent, he should win this fight rather convincingly behind his multifaceted attack. However, he'll have to remain patient on the feet and not give in to a street fight against Dan Hooker.
Why Dan Hooker Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Mateusz Gamrot – S DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Dan Hooker bested Mateusz Gamrot as a +210 betting underdog in one of the best fights we've seen during 2024. If it comes down to a straight-up scrap in a phone booth, there's not many fighters than can hang in the pocket with Dan Hooker and come away with much success. Hooker has a chance to seriously leap the rankings here and doesn't have much to lose facing a much better fighter, which makes him all the more dangerous in this situation.
Dan Hooker can do everything on the feet well, both when he's fighting technically and when he's throwing caution to the wind. His long reach allows him to swing his arms and hit opponents from awkward angles and his height advantage should give him some room to work at distance against his opponent.
Keep an eye out for his knees up the middle knowing Tsarukyan will eventually shoot for the takedown. If Dan Hooker can time a perfect knee or elbow, he could have a chance to end this fight via knockout.
Final Arman Tsarukyan-Dan Hooker Prediction & Pick
While Arman Tsarukyan may be the significant betting favorite en route to his eventual title shot, we shouldn't be overlooking an experienced veteran like Dan Hooker at any point of this fight. If he can force Tsarukyan into a brawl on the feet, Hooker will be a live underdog with a chance to finish early.
However, if all goes according to plan, Tsarukyan should be able to take Hooker down repeatedly en route to a decision win. He's also been dialed-in with his grappling as of late, so Tsarukyan could very well finish this fight with a submission on the ground.
I expect Arman Tsarukyan to win this fight, but Dan Hooker is just too big a betting underdog not to take his moneyline. Otherwise, it could pay to take a look at Arman Tsarukyan's prop to finish by submission.
Final Arman Tsarukyan-Dan Hooker Prediction & Pick: Dan Hooker (+455); OVER 3.5 Rounds (+100)
