Two teams that are currently leading their divisions face off in an intraconference matchup in Week 12. The Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road to face the Chicago Bears as we continue our NFL odds series with a Steelers-Bears prediction and pick.
The Steelers come into the game sitting at 6-4 on the season, which places them in first in the AFC North. They are looking to get a win and hold off the Ravens in the AFC North. After starting the season at 4-1, the Steelers have lost three of their last five. The Steelers are coming off a great win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The team still put up 34 points, even as Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Mason Rudolph came in a completed 12 of 16 passes for 127 yards and a score in the 34-12 win.
Meanwhile, at 7-3, the Bears are in first in the NFC North. The Bears opened the season 0-2 after losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. Since then, they have won seven of eight games, including three straight. Last time out was almost a massive blown lead. The Bears held a 16-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but the Vikings scored twice, including one with just 50 seconds left, to take the lead. A huge kick return put the Bears in a situation to kick the game-winning field goal, which is exactly what they did as they hit a field goal to win the game as time expired.
NFL Betting Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Steelers vs. Bears Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers: +2.5 (-105)
Chicago Bears: -2.5 (-115)
Over: 45.5 (-102)
Under: 45.5 (-118)
Steelers vs. Bears Key Injuries
Steelers: QB Aaron Rodgers (Wrist/LP), CB Darius Slay (Concussion/FP), RB Jaylen Warren (LP), LB Cole Holcomb (Illness/FP), LB Alex Highsmith (Pectoral/LP), G Isaac Seumalo (Pectoral/LP), TE Jonnu Smith (Rest/FP), WR Ke'Shawn Williams (Concussion/FP), T.J. Watt (Rest/FP), DT Cameron Heyward (Rest/DNP)
Bears: DB Jaquan Brisker (Shoulder/FP), DB Kevin Byard (Rest/FP), Tremaine Edmunds (Groin/DNP), LB T.J. Edwards (Hand and Hamstring/DNP), DL Grady Jarrett (Rest/FP), LB Noah Sewell (Elbow/DNP), OL Drew Dalman (Knee/LP), DB Kyler Gordon (Calf/LP), HB Travis Homer (Hamstring and Knee/DNP), DB Jaylon Johnson (Groin/FP), DB Tyrique Stevenson (Calf and Hip/LP), RB D'Andre Swit (Hip/FP), OL Darnell Wright (Pectoral and Hip/LP), RB Roschon Johnson (Thumb/DNP), OL Joe Thuney (Rest/DNP), OL Theo Benedet (Quad/LP)
Steelers vs. Bears Betting Trends
– The Steelers are 5-5 ATS this year. They have covered in two of the last three games.
– The Bears are 6-4 ATS this year. The team has covered in two of their last three games.
– The Steelers are 1-3 ATS on the road, but 0-1 as a road underdog. They are 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
– The Bears are 2-2 ATS at home, and 1-1 at home when a favorite. The team is 2-1 when a favorite this year.
– The over has covered in five out of ten Steelers games this year, but just two of four on the road.
– The over is just 5-4-1 in Bears games this year. It is also just 1-3 in home games this season. The under has hit in two straight Bears games.
Keys to Steelers vs. Bears
The Steelers' key will be on offense. There is the possibility that Aaron Rodgers plays this weekend, but it could also be Mason Rudolph. Regardless, the offense needs to take advantage of a weak Bears defense. The Bears are 26th in the NFL in opponent points per game while sitting 27th in opponent yards per game. They are 23rd against the run and 25th against the pass this year.
The Steelers are 12th in the league in points per game, but still 28th in yards per game. The Steelers' run offense has struggled, sitting 29th in the NFL, but they are 22nd in passing yards. Jaylen Warren is on the injury report for the Steelers. He has run for 536 yards and two scores this year. If he cannot go, it will be Kenneth Gainwell getting the majority of the workload. He has run for 244 yards and three scores this year.
Still, this may come down to the passing game for the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers has been solid, with 1,969 passing yards and 19 touchdowns, but seven interceptions. Still, Mason Rudolph has been solid when needed. He has 139 yards and a touchdown this year.
If the Bears are going to win, it may have to be by dominating the ground game and scoring a ton. The Bears are eighth in the NFL in points per game while sitting fourth in yards per game. They have been middle of the road in the passing game, sitting 13th, but are second in the run game. This is led by the combination of D'Andre Swith and Kyle Monangai. Swift has run for 634 yards and four scores, while Monangai has run for 413 yards and three touchdowns. If the Bears are going to win, it will be on the ground.
Steelers vs. Bears Prediction and Pick
The Steelers have won just two of their last five games. While the team did take out the Indianapolis Colts at home, it has also struggled on the road. They have lost each of the last two games on the road, with losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and Bengals. The Bears have been on a roll, and it took an amazing performance from Lamar Jackson to knock them off. Rodgers is not capable of that level of game anymore. The Bears have been the better team overall and will win this game.
The total may come down to who is playing quarterback for the Steelers. If it is Mason Rudolph, they will likely run the ball more. Still, Aaron Rodgers has not been putting up insane numbers. The Bears are going to be rn focused in this game, even though that is the strength of the Pittsburgh defensive unit. If they are going through the air, expect it to be short, creating long drives. Further, totals have been lower in Soldier Field, so the under is the right pick here.
Steelers vs. Bears Pick: Bears -2.5 (-115) and Under 4.5 (-118)
