The UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Main Card is well underway and we're set for another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. Sweden's Jack Hermansson will return against Kyrgyzstan's Myktybek Orolbai in what should be a highly competitive fight on this Main Card. Check our UFC odds series for the Hermansson-Orolbai prediction and pick.
Jack Hermansson (24-9) has gone 11-7 inside the UFC since 2016. He's split his last 10 fights at 5-5 dating back to 2019, alternating wins and losses each time around. He lost his most recent bout against Gregory Rodrigues, insinuating he could be due for a win here. Hermansson stands 6-foot-1 with a 77.5-inch reach.
Myktybek Orolbai (14-2-1) has gone 3-1 inside the UFC since 2023. After suffering a close decision loss to Mateusz Rebecki in his third bout, Orolbai bounce back with a win over Tofiq Musayev just five months ago. Now, he'll look to notch consecutive wins once again as the betting favorite. Orolbai stands 5-foot-10 with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar Odds: Jack Hermansson-Myktybek Orolbai Odds
Jack Hermansson: +200
Myktybek Orolbai: -245
Over 2.5 rounds: -166
Under 2.5 rounds: +130
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Why Jack Hermansson Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Gregory Rodrigues – KO (right hook, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Jack Hermansson was met with a big right hand during his last fight that sat him down quickly and once Gregory Rodrigues has his opponents on the ropes, there's not many that can come back from that sort of damage early. Hermansson will have to learn from the loss once again and over the last seven years, Hermansson has yet to drop back-to-back losses. He always seems to come through in these spots and will be a live underdog throughout this one.
Jack Hermansson may be the better striker of these two fighters thanks to his constant output. He's landing 5.13 significant strikes per minute compared to Orolbai, so Hermansson will have a huge discrepancy on the feet. From there, he needs to remain in his pocket and not over-extend himself to avoid any unnecessary takedowns.
The defensive wrestling will be a massive theme for Hermansson throughout this fight as Orolbai will look to press the takedowns and work his submission attempts. So long as he's able to sprawl and discourage his opponent from shooting, Hermansson could be the fresher fighter by the end of three rounds.
Why Myktybek Orolbai Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Tofiq Musayev – SUB (kimura, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Myktybek Orolbai comes into this fight following a quick, dominant win over his last opponent via submission. It marked his second win in just four UFC fights via submission, making him a threat both on the feet and on the ground. Orolbai will also threaten with submissions from the clinch and standing neck cranks, so don't underestimate his strength when tying up with opponents.
Orolbai certainly has the capability to be the more active striker in this fight, but he'll have to do a much better job of managing the distance than he has in the past. His ability to keep opponents in a compromised range is still coming along, but he'll have to be additionally cautious against an awkward striker on the feet like Hermansson.
Look for Orolbai to be the more reactionary fighter during this bout as Hermansson tends to be the side pressing forward. Orolbai does some of his best work from inside the clinch or along the fence, so expect him to continually be tying Hermansson up along there in setting up his takedowns.
Final Jack Hermansson-Myktybek Orolbai Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun fight between two differing styles and as Myktybek Orolbai continues to prove himself against increasingly difficult competition. Jack Hermansson is a great litmus test but given his alternating wins over the last 10 fights, he could be due for a win himself in a determined spot.
While the betting favorite, the activity proves to be a slight issue for Myktybek Orolbai if he's unable to finish the fight. Hermansson, on the other hand, is known for turning up the pressure in the later rounds, so this fight going the distance could benefit Hermansson most in the end. Still, it'll be interesting to see how imposing Orolbai can be in the grappling and whether he'll have trouble dealing with Hermansson.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with Jack Hermansson as the more experienced fighter who's been in this spot before. His experience against similar fighters should serve him well and I expect Hermansson to be noticeably more active by the end of this fight than his opponent. Let's take a chance on the underdog in this one.
Final Jack Hermansson-Myktybek Orolbai Prediction & Pick: Jack Hermansson (+200)
