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The New York Mets are on the road to take on the Atlanta Braves in the biggest series of the year for both teams. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Braves prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Mets-Braves Projected Starters
Luis Severino vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
Luis Severino (11-6) with a 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 178 innings pitched, 156K/59BB, .239 oBA
Last Start: vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Win, 6 innings, 5 hits, 3 runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 14 starts, 4.80 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 80.2 innings pitched, 78K/25BB, .248 oBA
Spencer Schwellenbach (7-7) with a 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 109.2 innings pitched, 118K/22BB, .237 oBA
Last Start: at Cincinnati Reds: Win, 6 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 9 starts, 3.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 52.2 innings pitched, 61K/7BB, .242 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Braves Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-170)
Moneyline: +122
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: -144
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How to Watch Mets vs. Braves
Time: 7:20 PM ET/4:20 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, Sportsnet New York
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
Luis Severino is having a good season for the Mets. He is having an even better month of September. This month, Severino has thrown 25.2 innings, allowed 19 hits, struck out 25, walked seven, and he has a 2.81 ERA. Severino has been able to throw the ball well, and the Mets need him to continue that in this game. New York is just two games up on the Braves in the Wild Card race, so this is a very important series. If Severino can have a good game, the Mets will be able to gain another game on the Braves in the Wild Card.
Severino has pitched pretty good against the Braves this season. He has allowed just two earned runs in both those games, but both were at at Citi Field. He has also been able to strike out 10 batters in the two starts against Atlanta. Now, he has gone just five innings in both those starts, but he should be able to extend that in this one. If Severino has another good game against the Braves, New York will win.
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
Schwellenbach is having an awesome season. His record does not necessarily reflect that, but his numbers are great. Schwellenbach is not only a strikeout pitcher, but he does not walk anybody, either. His chase rate is a huge reason for this. Schwellenbach's chase rate is in the 96th percentile in the MLB, and he does an awesome job keeping hitters off the barrel. If he continues to pitch as he has been, the Braves will win this game at home.
Schwellenbach has already pitched against the Mets this season. It was only one start, but he absolutely dominated. He threw seven shutout innings, allowed just two hits, and he struck out 11 batters. Along with that, he did not walk anybody. The Mets really struggled against Schwellenbach in that game, and this one should be no different. If Schwellenbach can have a performance anywhere near his last start, the Braves will are going to win.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a good game, and a very exciting series. This series just means more for both teams. I like Schwellenbach to lead the Braves to a win in this game, so I will take the Braves moneyline.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick: Braves ML (-144)
