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The New York Mets take on the Milwaukee Brewers in a winner-take-all game three Thursday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Brewers prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Mets-Brewers Game 3 Projected Starters
Jose Quintana vs. Tobias Myers
Jose Quintana (10-10) with a 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 170.1 innings pitched, 135K/63BB, .237 oBA
Last Start: at Milwaukee Brewers: Loss, 4.1 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 16 starts, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 86.1 innings pitched, 69K/34BB, .241 oBA
Tobias Myers (9-6) with a 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 138 innings pitched, 127K/36BB, .242 oBA
Last Start: vs. New York Mets: Win, 4 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 13 games, 12 starts, 2.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 69.1 innings pitched, 71K/16BB, .213 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NL Wild Card Odds: Mets-Brewers Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: +110
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: -130
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
How to Watch Mets vs. Brewers Game 3
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
New York has been able to play well, but their magic ran out at the end of game two. Phil Maton allowed a few home runs, and the Mets could not complete the sweep. However, New York does have Jose Quintana on the mound, and he had a very good month of September. His runs allowed in his last start were his first allowed in the the month. He had an ERA under 1.00 in September, so he is entering this game with the hot hand. If he can continue to throw the ball well, the Mets will win.
Quintana has been good in his last six starts. In that span, Quintana is 4-1 with 36.1 innings pitched, 25 hits allowed, 29 strikeouts to 11 walks, and an ERA of just 0.74. He is the man the Mets want on the mound in this elimination game, he just has to perform. In order to win this game, Quintana has to go at least into the sixth inning. He is averaging six innings pitched in his last six starts, so it is doable. If he can throw five or six strong, the Mets will advance to the NLDS.
Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win
Tobias Myers is quietly having a great season. You do not hear much about him, but you should. He had a couple of rough months to begin the season, but Myers has been lights out since the beginning of June. In that span, Myers has made 19 starts (20 games pitched), thrown 111.1 innings pitched, struck out 100 while walking just 26, and his ERA is 2.43. He has the talent to shut down the Mets, and it would not be surprising to see him go six strong innings in this game.
Milwaukee has faced Quintana twice this season, and he has gone less than five innings in both games. This is the playoffs, and an elimination game, so going less than five as a starter is not unheard of. However, the Mets played a double-header on Monday, and their bullpen is feeling the pressure. Getting Quintana to exit the game early would be huge towards advancing to the next round. If the offense can get going a bit in this game, the Brewers will win.
Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick
This is a great pitching matchup, even though it does not feature big names. Both pitchers have thrown the ball well, and that should continue. The playoffs are a different animal, though. Tobias Myers is a rookie, so he has not yet pitched in a playoff game. Quintana has the playoff experience, and I think he will outpitch Myers. I will take the Mets moneyline.
Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Mets ML (+110)
