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It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Padres prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Mets Padres.
The New York Mets know that if they are going to make the 2024 MLB postseason, they will have to finish with a better record than the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have been shredded by injuries this season, and they have played far from their best, but they do know how to win. They have been through this rodeo many times before. None of this is new to them. The Mets had a great 2022 season but were taken out by the San Diego Padres in the wild card series. Some core members of the Mets remain, but a lot of changes have occurred since 2022, and there isn't the same rock-solid reliability or late-season track record in New York when compared to Atlanta. It will be a heavy lift for the Mets in their attempt to overcome the Braves. Having to play the red-hot Padres for a four-game weekend series in San Diego adds to the weight of the challenge facing the Mets. However, the Mets were up to the challenge on Thursday. They got to Padre ace Dylan Cease and thumped the Friars, 8-3. Let's see what they are able to do in game two of this series, with the Padres now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West after losing two straight games, something they have rarely done since the All-Star break.
Mets-Padres Projected Starters
Paul Blackburn vs. Joe Musgrove
Paul Blackburn (5-3) has a 4.19 ERA. He delivered a solid performance in his most recent outing against the Marlins. It was a needed bounce-back for Blackburn, who had been torched by the Oakland A's, his former team, several days before. Was the bad start against Oakland the product of pitching against former teammates who knew his tendencies, or was it a matter of Blackburn just not having good stuff? Regardless of the answer, it was really important for Blackburn to pitch well the next time out, and he did that. Now, however, he goes up against a San Diego batting order which is a lot more formidable than the Marlins. Let's see what Blackburn has in his bag against a very capable lineup in San Diego.
Last Start: Sunday, August 18 versus the Miami Marlins: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
2024 Road Splits: 7 starts, 37 IP, 38 H, 24 R, 8 HR, 9 BB, 33 K
Joe Musgrove (3-4) has a 4.97 ERA. You can see that his starts and innings have been limited this season after he came back from an injury. The Padres don't want to overextend him, but the team is also in a position where it can turn to its elite bullpen to finish the games Musgrove starts. San Diego would really love to see Musgrove pitch into the sixth inning in this game and the other games he starts in the next several weeks.
Last Start: Sunday, August 18 versus the Colorado Rockies: 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
2024 Home Splits: 8 starts, 42 IP, 43 H, 22 R, 9 HR, 8 BB, 37 K
Here are the Mets-Padres MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Padres Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-215)
Moneyline: +108
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+176)
Moneyline: -126
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
How to Watch Mets vs. Padres
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT
TV: SNY (Mets) / MLB (Padres) / MLB Extra Innings
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
Joe Musgrove is not at the height of his powers as a pitcher. The Mets can get to him, score five runs against him, and cover the spread.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have been one of the three best teams in baseball over the past few weeks, alongside the Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros. They are overflowing with confidence and have the National League Rookie of the Year favorite, Jackson Merrill, making one big play after another. The Mets aren't nearly as good, or talented, or consistent as San Diego. The Padres should win comfortably against a mediocre pitcher, Paul Blackburn.
Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick
The pitching matchup is even. The lean is to the Padres, but our official recommendation is to pass on this one.
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Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5
