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We're set for another betting prediction and pick for the UFC Kansas City Main Card as we turn our attention towards this heated matchup in the Middleweight (185) Division. No. 14-ranked Michel Pereira of Brazil will take on Germany's Abus Magomedov as both men search for position in the rankings. Check the UFC odds series for our Pereira-Magomedov prediction and pick.
Michel Pereira (31-12) has gone 9-3 during his time with the UFC since 2019. After riding one of the UFC's hottest winning streaks at eight consecutive fights, half of which came by finish, his dropped his last bout to Anthony Hernandez via KO during their Main Event spot. He'll look to bounce back as the slight betting favorite here. Pereira stands 6-foot-1 with a 73-inch reach.
Abus Magomedov (27-6-1) has gone 3-2 inside the UFC since 2022. He's been a highly-touted prospect since his arrival to the promotion, but dropped back-to-back contests against two of the division's best. He's bounced back since with consecutive wins and he's hoping for his first crack into the rankings. Magomedov stands 6-foot-2 with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Kansas City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Kansas City Odds: Michel Pereira-Abus Magomedov Odds
Michel Pereira: -142
Abus Magomedov: +120
Over 1.5 rounds: -200
Under 1.5 rounds: +154
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Why Michel Pereira Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Anthony Hernandez – TKO (ground-and-pound, R5)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Michel Pereira quietly had one of the more impressive runs through the Middleweight Division with eight consecutive wins, including victories over names like Michal Oleksiejczuk, Ihor Potieria, and Andre Petrovski. He put forth a strong effort in his first Main Event spot against Anthony Hernandez, but he grew tired by the fifth round and it could have had something to do with his compromised chin. He's back to fighting three rounds in this situation and Pereira truly thrives when he's able to fight in an explosive manner over a shorter amount of time.
Given the nature of his opponent, Pereira will welcome the striking exchanges during this fight. He's still working with a slight reach disadvantage, so distance control will be a crucial part of his game plan. Magomedov is a very long and rangy striker, so it will benefit Michel Pereira to use head movement to slip into range and throw counter strikes. Look for Pereira to also be accurate with his shots as he throws behind a solid 53% accuracy.
Why Abus Magomedov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Brunno Ferriera – SUB (arm triangle, R3)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 14 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Abus Magomedov has all the physical tools necessary to be a future title contender in this division. However, through his fight against Sean Strickland, a few holes in his game like his cardio and striking defense were exposed as a result. Against other brawlers, Magomedov is usually at a much stronger advantage thanks to his reach and ability to hit hard from a close distance. He's very long-limbed, generating a ton of power and leverage with each one of his shots. He's also active with his kicking game and could find openings with the high head kick throughout this fight.
While Abus Magomedov has gotten off to slow starts and came back in the past, he can't afford to fall behind against a high-tempo machine like Pereira. Magomedov will have to dictate the distance early with his long jab as a measure throughout this fight. He's also very active with his teep kicks up the middle, so expect him to utilize a ton of that in keeping Pereira away from him. In the clinch, Magomedov is very strong with knees and elbows, offering a dangerous look if Pereira tries to tie up with him.
Final Michel Pereira-Abus Magomedov Prediction & Pick
This should be a very fun fight between two men who can finish the fight in numerous ways. Both fighters are aggressive and take the center of the octagon quickly, so we should be in for a high-level kickboxing match when these two square off.
Abus Magomedov has the better raw skill set during this fight, but it's Michel Pereira who's shown to be the better all-around mixed martial artist. We have to give the knockout upside to Magomedov, while Pereria has a far better chance to win this fight in a gritty decision.
Ultimately, I think Michel Pereira will get off to a fast start and put Magomedov on the fence here. While Magomedov will find offense through his kicks, Michel Pereira should be quite unorthodox and offer stifling looks to his opponent. Let's roll with the short betting favorite as he finds a way to grind out this decision win.
Final Michel Pereira-Abus Magomedov Prediction & Pick: Michel Pereira (-142)
