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Illinois welcomes Michigan State to the State Farm Center on Thursday night as both teams aim to bounce back from tough losses. It is time to continue our men's college basketball odds series with a Michigan State-Illinois prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Michigan State made a statement in December, winning five straight games and covering each. This came after a stretch where they lost three of four games, with two coming as favorites. Michigan State's momentum stalled when they went on the road to Northwestern and lost as three-point favorites. Michigan State lost two of their true road games outright this season, both as favorites. They have also struggled against Illinois, losing three straight games, with two coming in Illinois. There isn't much to lean on with the recent trends, as each team has won and covered five games each over their last ten matchups.
Illinois was a 10.5-point underdog against Purdue, so a five-point loss on the road is pretty good in theory. Illinois only has three losses on the season, with the other two coming against Tennessee and Marquette. After failing to cover in their first four games, Illinois is 9-0-1 against the spread. Terrence Shannon Jr leads the team, averaging 21.7 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. The scoring guard must continue his high-efficiency shooting if Illinois wants to keep their undefeated run against the spread intact. Illinois may be a surprising team at No.10, but they will want to keep that ranking and not get upset in this matchup.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Michigan State-Illinois Odds
Michigan State: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: (+118)
Illinois: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: (-142)
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
How to Watch Michigan State vs. Illinois
Time: 9 PM ET/ 6 PM PT
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread
Michigan State is an intelligent team, ranking near the top in assists per game and allowing few turnovers. Illinois' defense doesn't turn the ball over at a high rate, which means the Spartans will get their fair share of offensive opportunities. Michigan State and Illinois aren't as far apart statistically as their records and national ranking would suggest. The Spartans are in play to pull off the upset in this game, as this may become known as an upset week with Houston and Purdue going down on Tuesday night.
Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread
Michigan State relies on their interior play, as they are one of the least-frequent three-point shooting teams in the nation. Their field goal percentage ranks 36th in Division I, but they will be combated by the 12th-ranked defensive team in the country in that metric. Illinois allows only 38.2% shooting from the field, and they will be ready to shut down Michigan State. Michigan State has the 105th-best scoring offense, but Illinois is top-100, allowing only 66.8 points per game.
Illinois has the same issues as Michigan State with their offense shooting well, but the Spartans' defense ranks even better. However, Illinois' scoring offense is elite. However, Illinois' scoring offense is one of the best in the country. They score 83.5 points per game, which is 25th-best. Illinois' helping stats aren't great, but they hold a decided edge in the rebounding department. The Fighting Illini rank fourth in the nation with 40.1 rebounds per game. Michigan allows a lot of offensive rebounds and is just above average at the defensive end.
Final Michigan State-Illinois Prediction & Pick
This isn't an easy game to pick a side on. Both teams are on identical trajectories and sit near each other in most statistical categories. It will be a close, hotly-contested affair and could come down to the last shot. They've made the spread low enough that we can see Illinois managing to cover in the end. However, Michigan State won't turn the ball over often and is a highly efficient shooting team. They have all the tools to keep this game close. They are also one of the best teams in the country at limiting the other team's free throw attempts. Illinois will attack the paint, but if Michigan State's big men can stay out of foul trouble, they can pull off the upset and win outright.
The total is way too high in this matchup. Both teams have efficient shooting numbers and scoring offenses, but their defenses are even better. Michigan State shoots a low number of three-point attempts, which will limit the points at their end of the floor. Illinois' defense doesn't cause many turnovers, and Michigan State's offense is careful with possession. The only thing that can keep this score relatively high is Illinois' propensity to shoot threes. However, they don't shoot three-pointers as efficiently as from the field. Take this to be a tight, low-scoring game.
Final Michigan State-Illinois Prediction & Pick: Michigan State +2.5 (-110) and Under 148.5 (-110)
