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In a National League bout on Thursday evening, the defending champion Atlanta Braves will hit up the west coast to start a series with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. It is time to continue our MLB odds series, where our Braves-Padres prediction and pick will be unveiled.
The Braves enter play after finding themselves one game under .500 through seven games at 3-4. Atlanta recently dropped their matchup versus the Nationals 3-1, ultimately culminating in a series loss as the Braves dropped two of three to Washington. On the hill for Atlanta will be 38-year-old Charlie Morton, who has gotten off to a nice start to the 2022 season after firing 5 1/3 innings and only allowing a pair of earned runs on two hits.
After mostly a disappointing 2021 campaign that saw the Padres finish with a losing record at 79-83 and nearly 30 games behind the first place, San Diego has dropped two straight after reeling off four consecutive wins prior. The Padres will give the ball to RHP Joe Musgrove after the righty fanned eight batters over six innings in a win over the Diamondbacks last Saturday.
Here are the Braves-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Padres Odds
Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-235)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+190)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
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Why the Braves Could Cover the Spread
With franchise cornerstone OF Ronald Acuna Jr sidelined for the next couple of months after tearing his ACL last July, the Braves have remained inconsistent at the plate so far in 2022. After exploding for 16 runs versus the ‘Nats, the Braves followed up their scalding hitting performance by only generating three hits resulting in a singular run. The rollercoaster play at the dish so far could be a result of a bunch that is still getting adjusted to the early season games in April, but it is rather concerning to say the less.
The encouraging aspect is that the Braves have shown they can put up runs as fast as a raging flash flood and are more than capable to give starting pitching fits. Even though Acuna is down and out for the next couple of months, Atlanta still has some fearsome hitters at the heart of their lineup.
None may be more intimidating than 1B Matt Olson, as the former Oakland Athletic is filling Freddie Freeman's rather nicely with a slash line of .391, .548, and .609 in seven games thus far.
If anything is going to go Atlanta's way in this one, it's the fact that the Braves are 6-0 in their last six meetings at Petco Park against the Padres.
The Braves could cover the spread and continue to have their way versus San Diego if Charlie Morton can show that last year was no fluke, as the crafty pitcher had a 4.2 WAR with a 3.34 ERA in his first season in the Peach State. Morton loves to fool hitters with his curveball, as he throws that pitch 43% of the time, good for the fourth-highest mark among all qualifying starting pitchers.
Atlanta is currently 1-4 ATS in their last ball games.
Why the Padres Could Cover the Spread
In sunny San Diego, the Padres brought a sense of gloominess and sadness during their 2021 season. However, last year is now in the rearview mirror, and the Padres believe they can compete for the NL crown to the best of their abilities in 2o22. So far, the Padres have also showcased streakiness, as they already have shown that they can win games consecutively, but are currently on a two-game skid.
The Padres have been unable to hit the ball at a high rate, as their short losing streak could be contributed to their inefficiency in working the counts and being patient while in the box. In fact, San Diego has only scored three runs in their last two games while ranking 18th among MLB squads in OPS at .674. Not to mention, the Padres currently have three hitters that are batting under the Mendoza Line.
This contest will mark their first game played at Petco Park in the 2022 season, and while it may be considered a pitcher-friendly stadium, San Diego has to find a way to alleviate some pressure off the pitching staff by providing them with some run support.
The good news is that Joe Musgrove is only allowing a .195 batting average against to the opposition with at least 83 innings thrown, which is an excellent statistic given that the league average sits at .247. Additionally, the Padres have been a decent squad thus far in games against the spread, with a record of 3-2 through their previous five contests.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick
It may be the home opener in San Diego, but a -1.5 spread is a lot to ask for a Padres bunch that are far too inconsistent to trust. The savvy veteran in Charlie Morton will take the crowd out of it early by painting the corners and keeping the Padres off-balanced, making it easier for the world champs to tack on some runs late in this one.
Final Braves-Padres Pick: Braves +1.5 (-235)
