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The Atlanta Braves will begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies as the two divisional rivals meet at Citizens Bank Park on Monday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Braves-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Braves took two of three games from the Los Angeles Angels this past weekend, ending it with a clunker on Sunday. That brings their record to 58-39, and second in the NL East. They trail the New York Mets by 1 1/2 games in the standings, and a chance of winning the division still exists. Additionally, Atlanta is 6-4 over its last 10 games. The Braves have also gone 7-3 over its last 10 away games. Subsequently, they lead the season series against the Phillies 4-3 and took two of three at Citizens Bank Park last week. The Braves are 14-6 in July.
The Phillies just endured a humiliating sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs at home. Likewise, they have seen their record call to 49-46. The Phillies are 3-7 over a 10-game stretch and 5-5 over their last 10 home games. Ultimately, it has been a struggle without Bryce Harper as they are now 10-11 since his injury. The Phillies have gone 9-9 in July, and are 9.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East.
Max Fried will take the mound for the Braves. Fried is 10-3 with a 2.64 ERA in 2022. Likewise, he has continued the run in July, where he is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA over four starts. Fried tossed seven innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on seven hits. Additionally, he excelled in his only start against the Phillies this year, going six innings while allowing two earned runs on five hits with five strikeouts. Fried is 4-3 with a 3.90 ERA over 15 appearances against Philadelphia.
Ranger Suarez is the man for the Phillies today. Suarez is 7-5 with a 4.07 ERA. Also, Suarez is 1-0 in July, as he tossed five scoreless innings while allowing four hits in his only start. He has struggled against Atlanta this season, going 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in two starts. Additionally, Suarez went 6 2/3 innings in his last start against the Braves, allowing four earned runs on six hits with seven strikeouts.
Here are the Braves-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-104)
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-115)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
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Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
The Braves have some key hitters and they can do some damage. Consequently, Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley are the best bats in the lineup, especially after the loss of Adam Duvall.
Acuna is batting .250 (2 for 8) with three RBIs and one run in two games against the Phillies this year. Likewise, he is 2 for 5 against Suarez throughout his career. Swanson is batting .345 (10 for 29) with one home run, four RBIs, and three runs over seven games against the Phillies. However, he has had mixed results against Suarez, where he is 2 for 9 with an RBI. Riley is torching the Phillies, as he is batting .407 (11 for 27) with one home run, two RBIs, and three runs. However, he is 1 for 5 against Suarez.
The Braves will cover the spread if Fried can give them an excellent outing. Additionally, they need Acuna, Swanson., and Riley to pick up the slack and put runs on the board for the Braves.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The loss of Harper continues to haunt the Phillies, and they hope they get him back soon. Meanwhile, Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber carry the load, hoping for answers.
Hoskins is batting .259 (7 for 27) with two home runs, five RBIs, and three runs over seven games against the Braves. Alternatively, it has been a struggle against Fried, where he is batting .173 (4 for 23) with an RBI over 28 plate appearances against the Atlanta ace throughout his career. Schwarber has been ‘boom or bust' against the Braves, busting more than booming. Likewise, he is batting .130 (3 for 23) with two home runs, four RBIs, and six runs against Atlanta. It has not been any easier against Fried, as he is 2 for 10 with an RBI against the ace in his career.
The Phillies will cover the spread if they get a good game out of Suarez. The Phillies' pitcher must keep the pace with Fried, and go the distance if he can. Ultimately, Hoskins and Schwarber have to lead the offense and get the taste of a sweep out of their mouths.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Braves are the better team and the hotter team right now. Ultimately, the Phillies don't have the firepower to attack Fried, and it will show on the scoreboard. Expect the Braves to take this one and cover the spread.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-104)
