NBA Monday is in full swing as we're back with another prediction and pick for the rubber match of the Western Conference series. The Golden State Warriors (33-38) take on the Dallas Mavericks (23-48), series tied 1-1. Check our NBA odds series for the Warriors-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Golden State Warriors are tenth in the Western standings after their most recent 126-110 loss to the Atlanta Hawks. They've dropped their last three games heading into this one, hoping to cling onto play-in position with 11 games left to go on their schedule.
The Dallas Mavericks are thirteenth in the Western Conference standings, most recently losing 138-131 to the Los Angeles Clippers in overtime. They've also dropped three-straight and have just three wins over their last 15 games, hoping for an upset win at home to keep their season alive.
NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings
Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds
Golden State Warriors: -2.5 (+100)
Dallas Mavericks: +2.5 (-120)
Over: 230.5 (-115)
Under: 230.5 (-105)
Warriors vs. Mavericks Key Injuries
Golden State: De'Anthony Melt0n (hand – Probable) / Kristaps Porzingis (back – Probable) / Moses Moody (wrist – Questionable) / Jimmy Butler III (knee – OUT) / Seth Curry (abductor – OUT) / Stephen Curry (knee – OUT) / Al Horford (calf – OUT) / Quinten Post (foot – OUT)
Dallas: Caleb Martin (heel – Questionable) / Brandon Williams (concussion – Doubtful) / Kyrie Irving (knee – OUT) / Dereck Lively II (foot – OUT)
Warriors vs. Mavericks Betting Trends
- The Dallas Mavericks are 14-22 at home. The Golden State Warriors have gone 14-23 on the road.
- The Warriors are 25-19 as betting favorites. The Mavericks are 12-38 as underdogs.
- The Mavericks are 31-40 ATS overall, 18-18 ATS at home. The Warriors are 31-40 ATS overall, 16-21 ATS on the road.
- The Mavericks are 6-4 outright, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Warriors.
- The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
- The Mavericks are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Golden State's last eight games.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Mavericks' last five games.
Keys to Warriors vs. Mavericks Matchup
With the season series tied 1-1 and both teams winning on their home floor, it's surprising to see the Dallas Mavericks as home underdogs in this third and final rubber match. Both games were decided by eight or more points, so whichever side wins this game will likely cover the short spread while doing so. Neither team has been very good in the lead-up to this game and both rosters are riddled with injuries, but the Warriors hold much better standing with an 8.5-game lead over the 11-seeded New Orleans Pelicans.
With 11 games to go and the Mavericks 10 games back of the Warriors in the standings, this will effectively be a must-win for Dallas at home to preserve the slim chance they still have at making the playoffs. Cooper Flagg should be in-line for a big performance as he's averaging 24.0 PPG against the Warriors in two games. Naji Marshall is also adding 22.0 PPG against Golden State and they should have an advantage in the paint given the injuries to Porzingis and Quinten Post.
The Warriors will be much more focused on swinging the ball around the perimeters and getting out in transition, while the Mavericks are likely to favor a game where they're living in the paint and penetrating for layups. Expect Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington to have active roles in the offense as well given the Mavericks' significant size advantage over Golden State.
For the Warriors, Draymond Green will have to serve as their catalyst inside the paint with his defense and passing to help Brandin Podziemski facilitate the offense. Without Al Horford on the floor, the Warriors will also need Green's efforts in rebounding the basketball, so expect both him and Gui Santos to play most of their minutes from the forward and center positions.
Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick
This should be an evenly-matched game between these two teams given their season series, but trends have shown the winner will likely cover the spread. Both teams have lost three-straight coming in and the Warriors continue to be without Stephen Curry, a spot they've gone 10-22 this season. Favored on the road and the Mavericks needing a win to preserve their playoff hopes, this will certainly be a tough spot for the Warriors to win and cover.
Unless both Gui Santos and Brandin Podziemski can turn in high-scoring games, I expect the Mavericks to have much more depth in the paint as they should be able to out-rebound given the injuries to Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis. The team that has led in rebounds has won both games this series and home teams are 2-0.
For our final pick, we're going to roll with a heated Dallas Mavericks team to defend home court thanks to Cooper Flagg and their versatile forwards.
Final Warriors-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Dallas Mavericks +2.5 (-120)
