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The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Chicago Cubs. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cardinals Cubs prediction and pick.
Adam Wainwright gets the ball for the Cardinals, while Justin Steele makes the start for the Cubs.
Adam Wainwright can still get the job done at age 40. He has a 2.75 ERA. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts and six of his 10 starts for the year. He has given up just five home runs in 59 innings pitched. He is avoiding the big inning and is consistently keeping the Cardinals in the game every time he takes the mound. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start this season, but two of the three times he gave up four runs were against the National League Central favorites, the Milwaukee Brewers. When making a Cardinals Cubs prediction, you will easily see that the Cubs don't pose the same threat to Wainwright as the Brewers do.
Justin Steele has a 5.40 ERA, which might make it seem that he is dramatically worse than Wainwright. Yet, his patterns are not that different from Wainwright's. Steele has given up three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Wainwright, as noted above, has given up two runs or fewer at the same rate over his past five starts. Steele has given up three or fewer runs in seven of his 10 starts. What has hammered Steele's ERA is a collection of awful starts, three in particular. In those three starts, Steele pitched 7 2/3 innings and allowed 15 runs. He couldn't avoid the big inning, a main point of differentiation relative to Wainwright.
When Steele does avoid the big inning, however, he can be very good. He has thrown two scoreless five-inning outings this season, and has also posted a six-inning appearance in which he allowed only one earned run. He is a complicated pitcher to analyze, and he might determine your Cardinals Cubs pick more than anyone else.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cardinals-Cubs MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Cubs Odds
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+126)
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-152)
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
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Why The Cardinals Could Cover the Spread
Adam Wainwright is still a high-quality pitcher. He might not dominate the Cubs, but one can reliably expect him to go 5 2/3 or six innings and limit an opponent to two runs. If Wainwright does that against Justin Steele and the Cubs, the Cardinals are likely going to win this game. They have too many dangerous hitters in their lineup, and the Cubs are not armed with the level of pitching which is likely to contain St. Louis over nine innings. Wainwright is still worth trusting.
If you're unsure of which team to pick, this is the rubber game in a five-game series. The Cardinals are a better team than the Cubs and are clearly more likely to win a majority of any five games these two teams play.
Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
Justin Steele, as shown above, doesn't avoid big innings the same way Wainwright does, but he has had several strong outings this season and is not as bad a pitcher as his ERA suggests. If he is locked in, the dynamic of this game changes considerably. The Cubs are not as good as the Cardinals, but they have battled St. Louis hard in this series. They were one hit away — in the bottom of the ninth on Saturday night in Game 2 of a doubleheader — from winning this series (three games to one with Sunday's game remaining). They are going to battle every inch in this game as well, and it might pay off.
Final Cardinals-Cubs Prediction & Pick
If Wainwright pitches up to expectations, the Cardinals clearly have the far better chance of winning this game. Since Wainwright merits trust, that's the play to make.
Final Cardinals-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Cardinals -1.5
