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The New York Mets will play the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, hoping to replicate the magic from their last battle. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Mets defeated the Phillies 8-7 on Thursday in one of the wildest comebacks in 2022. Bryce Harper got the Phillies off on the right foot in the first with an RBI double to left field that drove in Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies scored five runs already by the time they hit the fourth. Then, Harper crushed a slider to deep right field for a solo home run to make it 6-0 Phillies. It was his fifth homer of the season. Next, Nick Castellanos pummeled a slider to deep left field to make it back-to-back home runs. It was his fourth homer in 2022, and it put the Phillies up 7-0. However, the Mets finally got on the board with a Starling Marte solo shot in the seventh. New York entered the ninth trailing 7-1 when the bats woke up.
Francisco Lindor crushed a two-run bomb to deep right field to cut the deficit to 7-3. Then, Mark Canha stepped to the plate with runners on the corners and one hit and drove in a run on an infield single to make it 7-4. J.D. Davis took a turn with two outs and runners on first and third as he smashed an RBI double that cut the lead to 7-5. Brandon Nimmo plucked an RBI single to center that drove in two to tie the game at 7-7. Finally, Marte came through with an RBI double that gave the Mets the lead, completing the seven-run comeback.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Phillies MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Mets-Phillies Odds
Mets: -1.5 (+122)
Phillies: +1.5 (-146)
Over: 7 (+100)
Under: 7 (-122)
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Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
New York has covered the spread in every game Max Scherzer has started in 2022. He is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 2022. Now, Scherzer looks to secure his fifth win and will face Philadelphia for the third time. He is 2-0 against the Phillies and is part of a pitching staff that ranks seventh in team ERA. Scherzer has accomplished this feat with solid pitching and help from his offense.
The Mets are second in the majors in batting average, first in on-base percentage, and third in runs. New York has found ways to score in a variety of ways and has proven that they are never out of a game Jeff McNeil is having a great season, as he is batting .328 with one home run and 10 RBIs. Additionally, Lindor and Pete Alonso have each crushed five homers to lead the Mets. New York already has two players with 20 RBIs and two more knocking on the door. They have illustrated an ability to come through in the clutch.
The Mets will cover the spread if Scherzer throws another gem. In addition to that, New York covers if its offense can support Scherzer earlier to fend off the Phillies.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Philadelphia will go with Kyle Gibson. He is 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA in five starts. Gibson tossed 4 1/3 innings, allowing one run (zero earned) on two hits and five walks in his previous start last week against the Mets. Now, Gibson will look to cut down on the walks and go deeper into this game. He will also face the pressure of going head-to-head with Scherzer. However, the pressure will not look as bad if his offense can help him out early and find a way to get to Scherzer.
Harper had a great game on Thursday and will need to replicate it to give the Phillies a chance. Consequently, he had only one hit in the five games before. Harper has five home runs and 17 RBIs in 2022 and will look to improve on those numbers. He has backup in Schwarber, who is hitting .195 but has seven home runs and 16 RBIs. Scwarber is the textbook definition of a hot-and-cold player. He either destroys a team or does absolutely nothing. The Phillies need the version that clobbers the baseball to effectively have a chance.
The Phillies will cover the spread if Gibson can outduel Scherzer and go deep into the game. Additionally, that will be easier if his offense can pick him up and give him some run support.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Until Scherzer has a bad game, it is hard to go against him. It is even tougher to pick another pitcher to outduel him. The Mets are also one of the best teams in the NL and the Phillies are not such a good squad. Expect Scherzer to keep it going, and the Mets to cover.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (+122)
