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The New York Mets head to Great American Ballpark to visit the Cincinnati Reds. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Reds prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
The Mets are coming in off two losses to the Colorado Rockies, and have now lost five of their last six games to fall below .500 on the season. Many of the key veteran pieces for the Mets have not performed to expectations so far this year, but the Mets have managed to tread water, as they wait for their stars to return to career norms. The Reds are coming off a 17-4 loss at the hands of the White Sox, but have been playing a lot of close games. Six of their last 11 losses have been by two runs or less. Similar to the Mets though, they have just won two games in their last six, and are below .500 on the season.
Here are the Mets-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Reds Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (-132)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (+110)
Over: 9.5 (-119)
Under: 9.5 (-104)
How To Watch Mets vs. Reds
TV: SNY/BSOH
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Last year the Mets took five of six games from the Reds, but this is a different year. The Reds are not as bad, and the Mets are not playing to expectations. The Mets' offense has struggled at times overall. They are sitting 18th in runs with 150, while they are also 22nd in batting average on the season. If there is a bright spot on the offensive side, it has been their walking. The Mets have drawn 133 walks on the year, which is 6th in the majors.
The major off-season contract given to Brandon Nimmo is paying off so far. He has a slash line of .310/.407/.460 on the year. He has three home runs and 14 RBIs while scoring 20 runs on the year. IT could be more, but the Mets are struggling to hit with runners in scoring position, sitting 23rd in the majors in that category. Nimmo has done well in his limited chances in those spots, hitting .286 with an OBP of .414. Pete Alonso is still tearing the cover off the ball, hitting 11 home runs this year and driving in 29, both of which lead the team. The strikeouts are starting to creep up though, as he has struck out 35 times, including 12 with runners in scoring position. The Mets are hoping for a turnaround from Starling Marte. On the month, he is hitting just .174 with six strikeouts and one walk. If he can turn it around, this Mets offense will get a huge boost.
Max Scherzer heads to the mound today for the Mets. His first start after his suspension was a disaster, as he gave up six runs in just 3.1 innings of work. Still, Max is a top-quality pitcher. He had two scoreless outings before the incident. Overall, it has been an up-and-down year for Mad Max, but he is still a star pitcher who could rebound in this one.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds' offense is a struggle. They sit 25th in runs scored this year, 16th in batting average, and 15th in on-base percentage. While they lost two of three to the White Sox, the series was a slight turnaround for the offense. They scored 13 runs in the three games, outpacing their season average. When they have been going on runs of scoring, the Reds have won. In their five-game win streak earlier this year, they scored 33 runs in five games.
TJ Friedl and Jonathan India are leading the pace for the Red's offense. Friedl is hitting a slash line of .319/.366/.478 on the season. He has driven in 16 runs this year while scoring 11 times. India has a slash line of .306/.397/.460. He also has three home runs on the year and has 14 RBIs. India has stolen seven bases this year as well while scoring 27 runs. On top of those two, Nick Senzel and Jake Fraley have come through in clutch situations. Senzel is hitting .421 with runners in scoring position, and driven in 11. Fraley is hitting .379, with 18 RBIs in those situations.
On the mound will be Luke Weaver in this one. In his three starts this year, he is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA. He has allowed four or more earned runs in each of the three starts while giving up five home runs. Weaver is traditionally a relief pitcher, so it may be taking some time to fit into this new role.
Final Mets-Reds Prediction & Pick
Neither team is scoring a ton on the year, but the Mets' offense is much better overall. They will have a chance to get right today against Weaver. Weaver has been allowing runs in bunches and struggled to keep guys off base. He has given up 17 hits in his last ten innings of work while walking four. That WHIP over 2.00 is going to be his downfall today.
Final Mets-Red Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (-132)
