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Opening Day is finally upon us! The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres for a 4-game series to start off the 2022 campaign. Let's continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
The San Diego Padres are coming off another underperformed season after they had high expectations last year. The Padres ended 2021 with a (79-83) record and 3rd in the NL West Divison after being over .500 for a majority of the season. The Friars started off the day with a blockbuster trade that sent RHP Chris Paddack, RHP Emilio Pagan, and a PTBNL to the Minnesota Twins for LHP Taylor Rogers and OF Brent Rooker. That should help the Padres bullpen (who was pretty good last season) stay among the league-best. Superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. is out until June (ish) as he recovers from wrist surgery. The team will have to pick it up in his absence.
The Arizona Diamondbacks finished last in the NL West Division last season with a (52-110) record. That is just about as bad as it can get, but the Diamondbacks didn't have much talent last season. It's not going to be hard to improve from last year, but I don't expect the Diamondbacks to compete at a high level this season. Ketel Marte is their top player and he can play second base as well as the outfield. It will be interesting to see how well he plays this season because he could be a trade target for many teams this year. Let's get right to tonight's prediction.
Here are the Padres-Diamondbacks MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Diamondbacks Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+122)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-146)
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres have a chance to cover this spread tonight as they are facing Madison Bumgarner for the fourth-straight Opening Day game. The Padres faced him when he was on the San Francisco Giants, and now with the D-backs in consecutive seasons. The Padres have beaten Bumgarner the last three seasons in a row on Opening Day.
The Friars are sending out ace Yu Darvish for the second consecutive year. Darvish and the Padres took down the D-Backs on Opening Day in 2021. Darvish was hot in the first half of last season but the second half wasn't as great. He ended with a 4.22 ERA and an (8-11) record. The 2021 All-Star features seven pitches and uses them all. His cutter and slider make up 55% of his arsenal.
The Padres' offense needs to step up in Tatis' absence. The team traded for Luke Voit to improve their offensive power, as Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth will lead the team in hitting. Eric Hosmer is going to need to improve from last season as they desperately need him to. The same goes for Wil Myers. It's going to be tough for them to get going right away because Tatis provides a spark only a few players can in this game.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
Bumgarner will need to show the Padres something different tonight if they want to cover this spread. The offense doesn't have the strength to put up a ton of runs, so it will be on the pitching to lead them tonight.
Darvish is not easy to hit against, but once they get into a constant rhythm against him, then they can seriously put up damage. Marte will be their top offensive player but guys like Carson Kelly, Christian Walker, and David Peralta are all solid hitters. The team has high expectations for Daulton Varsho and Pavin Smith, who will contribute this season.
If those players mentioned can ring Darvish early then they will have a chance to cover this spread. This is a divisional game and so those tend to either be really close, or blowouts. You never know with the NL West.
Final Padres-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
The Padres have won their last few Opening Day games in a row. I believe they will win again and I think they will do it by at least two runs. The Padres recognize Bumgarner as they have faced him for his entire career. Take the Friars to start out 1-0. Consider taking the under as well as it could take a few games for the offenses to get going.
Final Padres-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+122) and under 9 (-115)
