Subscribe
Follow Us
The San Diego Padres will try and win the four-game series as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the finale at Miller Park on Sunday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Padres-Brewers prediction and pick.
The Padres blanked the Brewers 4-0 on Saturday, shutting them out for the second day in as many games. Jake Cronenworth clipped an RBI double to get things started, and it gave the Padres a 1-0 lead in the third inning. Later, the Padres led 2-0 when Cronenworth came up to the plate with a runner on. He proceeded to slam a two-run bomb to deep right field. It was his fourth home run of 2022 and gave the Padres the 4-0 lead. It would be all they needed as neither team scored the rest of the way.
MacKenzie Gore was fantastic, tossing six scoreless innings with three hits allowed and ten strikeouts. Alternatively, Aaron Ashby went six innings allowing four earned runs and six hits with nine strikeouts. The Brewers are 33-22 and in first in the NL Central but have gone 4-6 over 10 games. Meanwhile, the Padres are 32-21 and sputtered in a 4-6 stretch over 10 games.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Brewers odds:
MLB odds: Padres-Brewers Odds
Padres: +1.5 (-196)
Brewers: -1.5 (-162)
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres will go with Mike Clevinger on the mound. Clevinger is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA through three starts. He pitched five scoreless innings in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing one hit. Clevinger has not pitched past five innings yet and is slowly working longer into games as he continues his recovery from an injury that forced him to miss April. Thus, he is working his way back into a condition to be able to toss longer games.
The Padres do not have a good offense. They rank 20th in batting average, 26th in home runs, and 27th in slugging percentage. However, they seem to be okay with getting on base, as they are 16th in on-base percentage and 17th in runs. Manny Machado is their best player until Fernando Tatis returns. He has nine home runs with 32 RBIs. Machado went 1 for 4 in yesterday's game and will look for more success today.
The San Diego bullpen has pitched well over two games, notching four straight scoreless innings. It is good, considering the relievers lost Thursday night's game with four runs allowed in the ninth. The bullpen will be paramount, especially if Clevinger is still not ready to go deeper into the game.
The Padres will cover the spread if Clevinger can toss another solid game. Also, San Diego covers if they can manufacture some runs and take the lead early. The bullpen must continue to shut down the Milwaukee lineup and sniff out any hope.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers will go with Eric Lauer today. Lauer is 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 2022. However, the past month has not been kind to him. Lauer tossed only four innings in his previous start, allowing three runs (two earned) while giving up five hits, striking out six, and walking three. His command is shaky, as he has walked seven batters in two games. Additionally, he cannot get past the fifth inning lately. Lauer has hit seven innings once through four games. Today, he will look to pitch deeper into the game and give his team a better chance to win.
The Brewers have not had a great offense at all. They rank 24th in batting average and 20th in on-base percentage. However, Hunter Renfroe will be back on Tuesday. He was batting .266 with nine home runs and 19 RBI in 39 games before an injury sidelined him. The Brewers will go one more game without him and need the other hitters to step up.
Christian Yelich got a day off on Saturday to recharge his batteries. He is batting .223 with five home runs and 21 RBIs. Now, he will get a chance to produce today and see if the day off did him any good.
The Brewers will cover the spread if Lauer can give them a quality start and go at least six innings. Additionally, the Brewers must pick it up offensively. Yelich is a factor here and has to be the guy that gets things going in the right direction.
Final Padres-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Padres and their opponents have scored seven or fewer runs in 10 of the last 12 games. It's a significant indicator of how low-scoring Padres' games usually are. Expect this game to be no different.
Final Padres-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Under: 7.5 (-110)
