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April showers bring May flowers! While rain isn't projected to be in the forecast until Monday at the earliest, sunny skies will be in order for this divisional showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets this evening. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Phillies-Mets prediction and odds will be unveiled.
The Mets continued their stellar play throughout the 2022 season after they shut out the ‘Phils 3-0 on Friday. At 15-5, RHP Taijuan Walker will come off the injured list to get the start. Walker has made only one appearance this season, as he pitched two innings of scoreless baseball with four strikeouts back on April 11th.
After getting no-hit by the Mets yesterday, the Phillies will seek a return to the win column on Saturday, something that came easy to Philadelphia earlier in the week when they swept the Rockies. At 10-11, the Phillies will put their faith in RHP Kyle Gibson in their pursuit to get back to the .500 mark.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Mets odds:
MLB odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-184)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+152)
Over: 7.5 (-112)
Under: 7.5 (-108)
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Why the Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Phillies have come out victorious in six of their previous eight games before faltering against the Mets on Friday. Philadelphia's hot bats were quieted by the dominating prowess of the New York staff, as the Phillies were no-hit in a combined effort by the Mets' pitching staff and bullpen. Although the Phillies drew six walks on the night, they failed to come up in the clutch with runners on base.
A diving play by outfielder Brandon Nimmo on Jean Segura's liner proved to be the final out, as all the ‘Phils could do was move on and look forward to Saturday's matchup. After outscoring Colorado 32-9 a few days ago, the Phillies have to find a way to avoid entering a funk in game two versus their division nemesis.
Through 21 games, the Phillies have one of the best top-to-bottom lineups that baseball has to offer, which makes them getting no-hit that much more astonishing. In today's day and age of high strikeout rates and lower batting averages, Philadelphia's .246 mark at the plate may seem quite pedestrian. However, this average currently ranks out as the eighth-best number in the majors, something that would not have been the case a couple of decades ago. Regardless, the Phillies are as dangerous as they come, and have numerous weapons to make the opposition pay.
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Leading the way statistically at the plate is OF Nick Castellanos, who is in his eleventh year in the majors and in his first as a Phillie. Castellanos currently has the highest average on the team at .303 and also batted in 12 runs.
Gibson will look to turn the page against a Mets team he has had his struggles with. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in five career starts versus the squad from Queens.
Why the Mets Could Cover the Spread
One of the most all-around well-balanced teams during the first 1/8 of the season, New York has shown it can win in a multitude of ways. Pitching was the name of the game on Friday, but the bats are by no means strangers in punishing other squad's pitchers, as they have the third-most runs scored with 97 through their first 21 contests.
Fueled by 50 extra-base hits, the Mets usually wreak havoc by smashing doubles and triples into the outfield gaps. New York ranks ninth in slugging with a .395 percentage.
The Mets have no doubt gotten the best out of their players at the dish, as names like Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso are all raking with extreme confidence.
Pitching-wise, New York was perfect in the series opener, as starter Tylor Megill fired five spotless innings before relievers Drew Smith, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, and Edwin Diaz entered the ballgame and recorded the final 12 outs. It was the first Mets no-hitter since Johan Santana's gem which came all the way back in 2012 when we went up against the St. Louis Cardinals.
It will be interesting to see what Taijuan Walker is made of after limited action thus far in 2022, as the 29-year-old in his ninth season of play pitched four innings in a simulated game on Monday. While it will be nearly impossible for Walker to pitch deep into this ballgame, the key will once again be the bullpen, as the Mets may have to rely on other arms with possible fatigue becoming a factor in the later innings of the game.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
At first glance, the Mets are the better team on paper, but if there is going to be a bounce-back type of performance from the Phillies, then it will be this one. With Walker on the mound and some rust being an almost certain guarantee, Philadelphia will cover the spread if they can get off to a fast start and put the pressure on New York early. Expect the Phillies to get the job done on Saturday night.
Final Phillies-Mets Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-184)
