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The Texas Rangers take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rangers Mariners prediction and pick.
Glenn Otto takes the bump for the Rangers, while Chris Flexen gets the ball for the Mariners.
Glenn Otto has a 5.40 ERA. He doesn't get crushed, but he does get pecked and poked to death. He has allowed more than four runs in only two starts this season, so it's not as though he takes the mound and gets blasted. He has allowed eight home runs this year in 61 2/3 innings, roughly one homer every eight innings. That isn't great by any means, but it's also not reflective of a pitcher who is fundamentally noncompetitive and has nothing to offer. Otto simply allows way too many baserunners. For a pitcher who has pitched 61 2/3 innings, a total of 34 walks is alarmingly high. That's roughly five walks per nine innings. What's worse is that Otto's 34 walks coexist with just 47 strikeouts. He strikes out four batters for every three hitters he walks. That is awful. The combination of walks, few strikeouts, and ample numbers of base hits allowed (56 in his 61 2/3 innings) is a formula for steady run production by opposing offenses, even without a large number of home runs. Otto has to at least reduce his walks and see if he can get hitters to make more unproductive outs with runners on base.
Chris Flexen has a 3.79 ERA. That ERA was 4.98 on May 21, when the Mariners were well below the .500 mark and buried in the standings. The Angels were in second place in the American League West at that time. The Mariners were not a serious part of the American League wild card conversation.
In the ensuing two months, Flexen — like the Mariners — made a significant turnaround. While the team got a lot better, Flexen did as well, shaving 1.19 runs off his ERA. Flexen has been particularly strong in his last three starts, pitching to a 1.10 ERA: 16 1/3 innings, two earned runs allowed, only one homer allowed. You will note that Flexen went only 3 2/3 innings on July 17 against these very same Texas Rangers, allowing one run. Why did he come out so early? It wasn't an injury. He was making a start on three days' rest for the first time in his career, a move by manager Scott Servais which was based on the fact that the All-Star break was at hand, and the Mariner bullpen could be used liberally since the team had four days of rest beginning on Monday, July 18.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rangers-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rangers-Mariners Odds
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-154)
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+128)
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
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Why The Rangers Could Cover the Spread
The Rangers played in Miami on Thursday and then had to fly to Oakland for a Friday-Sunday weekend series. They were predictably sluggish on Friday. That carried over into Saturday. On Sunday, their bats woke up, and they pounded the A's for 11 runs. Corey Seager has hit eight home runs in July, the most of any player in the majors for the month.
What is also worth noting is that Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners' best player and the American League Rookie of the Year front-runner, has missed every game since the All-Star break due to a sore wrist. He is expected to miss this game unless a late announcement is made to the contrary.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
After seeing the Astros blitz them over the weekend, the Mariners will relish playing the Rangers, who just lost a weekend series against the A's and do not have the caliber of pitching needed to beat the Mariners. Seattle swept a four-game series in Texas before the All-Star break, part of the team's 14-game winning streak. Even without Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners should have answers for Glenn Otto, a mediocre (at best) pitcher who has to prove he can improve before he gets the benefit of the doubt.
Final Rangers-Mariners Prediction & Pick
This is a huge game and series for the Mariners. There is no shame in losing to the Astros without Julio Rodriguez, but even without their star rookie, the M's should definitely feast on the Rangers … and if they don't, they're likely to miss the playoffs. Seattle has so much riding on this game. Expect the Mariners to play a solid game, and for Chris Flexen to remain locked in, as he has been in July.
Final Rangers-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners -1.5
