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The Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks will play the rubber match of a three-game series in Phoenix on Sunday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Rockies-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
The Rockies rallied from behind in the ninth to beat the Diamondbacks 4-1 on Saturday. There was no score until the eighth inning when Christian Walker clipped an RBI double to put the D-Backs up 1-0 entering the ninth. Then, Mark Melancon came into the game to close it out for Arizona, and things fell apart quickly. CJ Cron started with a leadoff single. Next, Ryan McMahon singled to move the runner over. Melancon retired the next two, and it set the stage for Yonathan Daza. Subsequently, Daza plucked an RBI single to drive in the game-tying run. Jose Iglesias then delivered an RBI single to give the Rockies the 2-1 lead. Next, Connor Joe plucked an RBI single to make it 4-1.
Kyle Freeland pitched efficiently, tossing six scoreless innings for the Rockies. Meanwhile, Zack Davies three 6 1/3 innings of scoreless work for the D-Backs. The Rockies are 16-13 and third in the NL West, while the Diamondbacks are 14-14 and last in the NL West.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rockies-Diamondbacks MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Rockies-Diamondbacks Odds
Rockies: +1.5 (-176)
Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-118)
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Why The Rockies Could Cover The Spread
Colorado will go with German Marquez on the hill. Marquez has had a year to forget as he is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA. The 2021 all-star pitcher has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his five starts. Additionally, he has given up four home runs. He tossed five innings, allowing seven earned runs with 10 hits in his previous start against the Washington Nationals. Arizona needs the old Marquez to return, the pitcher that went 12-11 with a 4.40 ERA in 2022. While he was not the best pitcher last year, he was at least an innings-eater and kept his team in the game. Also, he faced the Diamondbacks twice in 2021 and went 1-0. He tossed for seven innings without allowing an earned run in the lone win.
The Rockies are the top team in the majors in batting average. In addition to that, Colorado is second in on-base percentage, second in slugging percentage, eighth in runs, and 10th in home runs. Cron has been an all-star in 2022, as he has mashed nine home runs with 24 RBIs while batting .320. McMahon has had a productive season as he is hitting .261 with a .424 slugging percentage. Both had two hits last night and will look to replicate the performance again.
The Rockies will cover the spread if Marquez finds his old stuff and shuts down the Diamondbacks. He must limit the hits allowed and prevent the ball from leaving the yard. Also, the Rockies cover if Cron and McMahon can square up at the plate and deliver on some hits. Colorado must find a way to score earlier in the game to ensure an easier path to victory.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
Arizona will go with Zac Gallen on the hill. Gallen is 1-0 with a 1.27 ERA over four starts. He tossed 6 1/3 innings in his last start, allowing two earned runs on five hits in a victory over the Miami Marlins. Now, he looks to do it again as he faces a Rockies team that is near the top of the league in almost every offensive category. Gallen has been efficient and has not allowed a home run yet.
The Diamondbacks are not a good hitting team. Arizona ranks 30th in the majors in batting average. Additionally, the D-Backs are 26th in on-base percentage, 23rd in runs, and 23rd in slugging percentage. However, the Diamondbacks are seventh in home runs. When they score, it usually comes off the long ball. Walker and Daulton Varsho each have six home runs to pace the D-Backs. Now, both will try and deliver with more hitting as the Diamondbacks face a pitcher that gave him fits last season. Arizona left nine runners on base last night, and they must rectify that today.
The Diamondbacks will cover the spread if Gallen can replicate his performance from the previous game. Arizona needs him to continue his excellent season and give them a chance to stay in the game against a team that is ahead of them in the division. Walker and Varsho must contribute, and the Diamondbacks cannot leave ducks on the pond again.
Final Rockies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
Marquez will get it right eventually. He always starts slow and usually picks it up when May or June comes around. Arizona is the right team to get well against, and Marquez will have the opportunity to prove that his slow start is a fluke. However, Gallen is tremendous, and it is difficult to see the Rockies teeing off on him. Expect the offenses to struggle again and deliver underwhelming results.
Final Rockies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Under: 8 (-118)
