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The Minnesota Twins take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Blue Jays prediction and pick.
Chi Chi Gonzalez gets the start for the Twins, while Yusei Kikuchi gets the call for the Blue Jays.
Chi Chi Gonzalez has quite a story to tell. This is his first start of the 2022 season. He has not had a particularly linear or smooth career. He is a battler who pitched 67 innings when breaking into the big leagues with the Texas Rangers in 2015, then pitched only 10 innings in 2016. He did not pitch in any major-league regular-season game in 2017 or 2018. In 2019, he pitched his way back to The Show and found an MLB roster spot on the Colorado Rockies. He pitched 63 innings that year. He pitched 19 2/3 innings in the shortened 2020 pandemic season with the Rockies, and then had his highest-workload season in 2021 with Colorado, which did not retain him for this year. The Twins picked him up and put him in the minors. Gonzalez got the call up to the parent club for this game. He has a career ERA of 5.64. His ERA in just over 100 innings with Colorado last year was 6.46. Playing for Texas and then Colorado has meant Gonzalez has pitched in hitter-friendly parks throughout his big-league career. (The Rangers' previous home before their current one was a home-run launching pad.) This is a fascinating pitcher to evaluate when you make your Twins Blue Jays prediction based on the current MLB odds.
Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.48 ERA. It has been a wild and bumpy ride for the former Seattle Mariner in Toronto, but he has improved over the past month. In April, Kikuchi was awful, giving up 12 runs in 14 2/3 innings pitched. He pitched past the fourth inning in only one of four starts. In May, Kikuchi gave up seven runs in 26 2/3 innings. He still gives up baserunners, especially early in games, but he has improved in terms of escaping jams. In his most recent start last weekend against the Angels, he went five innings and gave up two runs on nine hits. He scattered a lot of singles but never gave up the big blow. In each of his previous three starts before the Angel game one week ago, Kikuchi pitched around three walks to limit damage. He is not a dominant pitcher, but he is wiggling out of trouble. The one concern: What if he keeps getting into trouble? That's what you have to keep in mind when making a Twins Blue Jays pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Blue Jays MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-Blue Jays Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-110)
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 9 (-122)
Under: 9 (+100)
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Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Blue Jays have won eight in a row and are bound to play a bad game at some point. Also, Yusei Kikuchi struggles in the early innings. If the Twins get a quick three-run homer or two-run single in a tight first-inning spot, they will completely change the trajectory of the game.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
The Jays are on a roll. They are facing a mediocre and generally unproven pitcher with a fat ERA from previous seasons of pitching in the big leagues. Max Kepler and Carlos Correa are both out of the Twins' lineup for this game. Kepler is unvaccinated and therefore can't play in Canada. Correa is on the COVID-19 list. The Twins are undermanned. They have not hit well this week, having lost on consecutive days to the Tigers in Detroit. A lot of things line up for the Jays in this game.
Final Twins-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
If you're hesitant to pick the Blue Jays because they're on a huge winning streak, and winning streaks are bound to come to an end, that's fine. The over is a great play here. The Jays have played four games this week (Sunday through Thursday), and all four had 10 total runs or more. The pitching matchup here is not an elite one.
Final Twins-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Over 9
