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The Minnesota Twins take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Padres prediction and pick.
Dylan Bundy goes to the hill for the Twins, while Sean Manaea gets the ball for the Padres.
Dylan Bundy has a 5.02 ERA. He had a 2.95 ERA at the end of April, giving the Twins a good first month. Since then, it has been mostly downhill. Bundy has turned in a gem against the Diamondbacks on June 18 (eight innings, one run), and a solid start on June 24 versus the Rockies (six innings, one run), but those outings are in the minority for Bundy in 2022. A more representative start is a 5 1/3-inning, three-run performance against the White Sox on July 16. That is reflective of a five-run ERA pitcher. In Bundy's last three starts, he has pitched 14 1/3 innings and allowed 12 earned runs. That simply won't cut it for a Minnesota team which has a precarious two-game lead over Cleveland (three over the White Sox) in the American League Central.
Sean Manaea had a 3.52 ERA on June 8. Since then, his ERA has risen to 4.33. He, like Bundy, is moving in the wrong direction. Manaea has allowed 13 earned runs in 19 innings in four July starts. He has given up 28 hits and five home runs in those 19 innings. There is simply way too much hard contact against him at the moment. He needs to use this start as a time to reset and get hitters more off balance. If San Diego is going to hold off the Cardinals and Phillies in the wild card race (at least one of the two, since that is what the Padres need to make the postseason), Manaea needs to make noticeable improvements in his level of performance.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-Padres Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-160)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+132)
Over: 8.5 (-106)
Under: 8.5 (-114)
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Padres have been treading water after their hot start. The Padres were 10 games over .500 at the 36-game mark of their season, and then at the 50-game mark of their season. After 90 games: 10 over .500. Through 102 games: 10 over .500. The Padres are likely to make the playoffs only because the rest of the National League has been so mediocre. Even then, San Diego is not a lock to make the postseason. If the Cardinals and Phillies both get hot, the Padres will have to do some work to fend off at least one of the two, which they will need to do to make the postseason. The Twins can handle a San Diego team which has not been able to improve over the course of the season.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Twins have been even more adrift and ordinary than the Padres have been. Minnesota was six games over .500 through 24, then 36, then 70, then 92, and now through 100 games of its season. Much like the Padres, the Twins have not collapsed or imploded, but they also haven't been able to maintain a steady upward trajectory. They're in position to make the playoffs, but that position is not authoritative or comfortable. If the teams just below them in the standings (Guardians, White Sox) get hot, they'll have to scramble to play baseball in the second week of October. (The regular season ends Oct. 5.) The Padres have not been brilliant this season, but they have been better than the Twins.
Final Twins-Padres Prediction & Pick
Two pitchers going in the wrong direction on two teams which have been average for most of the season after hot starts in April — that's the profile of a stay-away game. If you absolutely insist on making a pick, lean to the Padres.
Final Twins-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5
