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The San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals for the finale of a 3-game series at Petco Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Nationals-Padres prediction and pick.
Nationals-Padres Projected Starters
DJ Herz vs. Dylan Cease
DJ Herz (1-1) with a 4.50 ERA and has 26 K's and a WHIP of 1.33 in 18.0 innings.
Last Start: 3.2 innings, seven hits, three earned runs, and five strikeouts in the 11-5 win over the Colorado Rockies.
2024 Road Splits: (0-0) with a 7.36 ERA and five K's in 3.2 innings.
Dylan Cease (6-5) with a 4.14 ERA, 116 strikeouts (4th in MLB), and a WHIP of 1.11 in 91.1 innings.
Last Start: 4.2 innings, six hits, four earned runs, two walks, and 10 K's in the 9-5 win over the Milwaukee Brewers.
2024 Home Splits: (2-4) with a 4.31 ERA in 39.2 innings.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Padres Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-130)
Moneyline: +160
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+108)
Moneyline: -190
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Nationals vs. Padres
Time: 4:10 ET/1:10 PT
TV: MLB.TV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Note: All Stats are prior to Tuesday night's game against the Padres
AT (38-40) on the season, the Nationals are close to the Padres in the standings. The Friars sit in the final Wild Card spot but the Nats are just 1.5 games behind them. D.C. let Game 1 of the series slip from them as they allowed the Padres to score four runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to win the contest in walk-off fashion. Despite that, if they respond and win the next two games, they will be in playoff position depending on the results of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who own the same record.
The Nationals are (6-4) in their last 10 games and even swept the Miami Marlins a couple of series back. Lane Thomas has emerged and CJ Abrams continues to lead the team as the leadoff hitter. Abrams is batting .275 with a team-leading (and by a wide margin) 144 total bases with 12 homers and 39 RBIs. Thomas missed some time this year but in the games he's played, he's made an impact. He is batting .241 with eight homers and 31 RBIs in just 49 games played. Those two have combined for 30 stolen bases as well. The more they impact the game, the better the Nationals play.
Herz hasn't had many starts but has proven to be a strikeout machine when on the mound. He's pitched only 18 innings and has 26 strikeouts already. He threw a gem against the Marlins tossing six scoreless innings allowing one hit and striking out 13 batters.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Note: All Stats are prior to Tuesday night's game against the Nationals
Dylan Cease will start for SD. After a great start to the year, he has slowed down a bit allowing 15 runs in the month of June. The strikeouts are there but he has had the problem of allowing the long ball more often than he should. He's allowed eight homers in as many games but the good news remains and that is the Padres always will have a better shot at winning the game with him on the bump. He's still giving the team quality starts which is needed with the injuries the rotation is currently dealing with.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is on the IL and will be out past the All-Star break. Xander Bogaerts remains out for a few more months and so the lineup is taking a hit. The good news is they find a way to get the job done even without their stars. Jurickson Profar smashed a walk-off hit in Game 1 and has emerged as a potential and almost guaranteed All-Star for the Friars this year. Jake Cronenworth is having a great all-around season while Luis Arraez continues to smash hits, leading the league with 104 hits, four more thank Bobby Witt Jr. Profar is second in the league in batting average at .317 behind only Shohei Ohtani at .318. Arraez is batting .311.
Jackson Merrill is making a run at Paul Skenes for NL Rookie of the Year. The 21-year-old is second in odds on FanDuel at +420. Merrill is batting .288 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs and has an OPS of .767. He leads all rookies in home runs and is second in average behind Masyn Winn.
Final Nationals-Padres Prediction & Pick
I expect this to be a close game but I also don't trust the Nationals to cover the spread against Cease. Take the Padres to win this game straight up for either a chance at a sweep or for the series. The over at 7.5 is a good number as well.
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Final Nationals-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres ML (-190), Over 7.5 (-110)
