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The Philadelphia 76ers (1-3) travel across the border to take on the Toronto Raptors (2-2) on Wednesday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a 76ers-Raptors prediction and pick.
The 76ers are 1-3 after a rough opening week which saw them drop three straight games to the Celtics, Bucks, and Spurs. They bounced back in their most recent outing over Indianapolis. Philly is 1-3 against the spread (ATS) this season – continuing last year's struggle against the spread (44-49-1, 47.3%). Three of the 76ers four games have gone under – mirroring last year's under trend (53.3%).
The Raptors, meanwhile, are 2-2 following the opening week of games. They won the opener over Cleveland before dropping a game to the Nets and splitting a two-game series in Miami. Toronto is 3-1 ATS this season – continuing their strong cover rate from last year (48-39-1, 55.2%). Three of the Raptors' four games have gone under after 51% of their games went under last season.
The Raptors took three of the four games against the 76ers last year. Two of their wins came after James Harden was traded to the 76ers. Toronto's wins came by six, five, and 5 points. Philly stole one of the games in Toronto by five points.
Here are the 76ers-Raptors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: 76ers-Raptors Odds
Philadelphia 76ers: -2 (-110)
Toronto Raptors: +2 (-110)
Over: 212 (-110)
Under: 212 (-110)
Why The 76ers Could Cover The Spread
Things have not gone quite according to plan for the 76ers to start the year. One of the early favorites to win the Eastern Conference, Philly dropped their first three games of the year. Now, granted, two of those games were against fellow Eastern Conference heavyweights Boston and Milwaukee, but their loss to the Spurs was inexcusable. However, a blowout win over the Pacers could have been just the thing they needed to get their season back on track.
While 76ers center Joel Embiid has finished in the top three in MVP voting the last two seasons, he's been off to a rough start by his standards. Embiid averages 26.8 PPG and 11.3 RPG. Hardly “bad” stats” but he's shooting under 50% from the field and has turned the ball over nearly four times per game. Embiid is a matchup nightmare for the Raptors so this could be a good spot for him to start to turn things around.
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Former MVP James Harden has picked up the slack for Embiid in the early part of the season. After struggling by his standards last year, Harden has been up to his usual tricks this year and appears to be back to the James Harden of old. Harden is averaging 26.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 9.8 APG. He's done this with efficient shooting numbers (48.6% from the field, 37.5% from three). Harden struggled against the Raptors in last year's playoffs but should be motivated to put those woes in the past.
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
Toronto will be looking to avenge last year's playoff loss to Philly in tonight's matchup. While Toronto is just 2-2 thus far, they've played the Cavs and Heat three teams. Those are two of the best defensive teams in the league – especially on the perimeter. A matchup with Philadelphia's 21st-ranked defense bodes well for the Raptors' chances of having an offensive explosion.
After averaging a hair over 20 points per game in each of the last three seasons, Raptors forward Pascal Siakam appears to have taken a step forward in his seventh NBA season. Siakam leads the team in scoring at 26.5 PPG. He's even taken his rebounding up a notch – averaging 10 RPG. Siakam is actually shooting worse than in previous years, but his aggression on the offensive side of the ball has been something to watch thus far. At 6'8″ and 230 lbs, Siakam is a huge matchup problem for a 76ers team unwilling to play their best defensive player for extended periods of time. If Siakam is matched up with Tobias Harris he could be in store for another big game.
If Toronto is going to cover, however, it's going to be thanks to point guard Fred VanVleet. VanVleet's scoring numbers are down to start the year as he's averaging just 16 PPG. However, he's faced a slew of stellar defensive teams. The 76ers are not that. He'll be matched up with either James Harden or Tyrese Maxey. Opposing point guards average 20.8 points per game against Philadelphia this season. If the Raptors' lead guard can get things going they should have good chance to cover as a home underdog.
Final 76ers-Raptors Prediction & Pick
I like Philly to bounce back and start to really get their season rolling tonight. The Raptors are a little banged up and with 76ers coach Doc Rivers' seat getting warm, this should be a get-right spot for them.
Final 76ers-Raptors Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2 (-110)
Player Prop: Fred VanVleet Over 17.5 points
