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The Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz meet for the first time this season in a showdown in Salt Lake City. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Celtics-Jazz prediction and pick.
The Celtics hold a record of 12-10 both overall and against the spread. Boston is coming off a loss to the Phoenix Suns.
The Jazz hold the best record in the league at 19-5, and they are 17-6-1 against the spread. In Utah's most recent game, they defeated the Indiana Pacers.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Celtics-Jazz odds.
NBA Odds: Celtics-Jazz Odds
Boston Celtics +6 (-110)
Utah Jazz -6 (-110)
Over 220 Points (-105)
Under 220 Points (-115)
Why The Jazz Could Cover The Spread
Utah has been a covering machine all year. Over their last 15 matchups, Utah is a ridiculous 13-1-1 against the spread. The reason for this success is a combination of two factors that usually lead to wins in the modern NBA: hitting a ton of threes while preventing your opponent from doing so.
The Jazz are second in the league in three-point percentage, and they have made the most threes in the league.
Utah's roster is a perimeter defender's nightmare. The Jazz have a total of SIX players who are shooting above 38% from deep, and all of them shoot at least four threes a game.
Adding insult to injury for the Celtics, Boston will be without its best perimeter defender in Marcus Smart, and they could be without star guard Jaylen Brown, who is questionable.
If Brown sits, it could be a long night for Boston. Brown averages 27.4 points a game on 51% shooting. The only Celtics with more efficient shooting numbers than Brown are centers.
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Of course, Tatum is set to play and should still get his points. But missing an efficient, high-volume shooter against a defense that doesn't give up easy buckets is a disaster.
The Jazz defense allows the third-least points in the league and holds opponents to the second-lowest field-goal percentage.
Without J.B., the Celtics will struggle to put up points and this game could get ugly.
Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
Boston has their own injuries to deal with in Smart and Brown, but the Jazz will also be missing a key contributor tonight: Mike Conley.
Conley is the Jazz's third-leading scorer and an important contributor to the flow of the offense. His absence figures to at least slow the slew of shooting down a smidge and make Donovan Mitchell the primary ball-handler.
The main focus for the Celtics will be stopping the Jazz's three-point barrage. Thankfully for Celtics bettors, Boston has done a fairly decent job around the perimeter.
Boston allows the eighth-least three-pointers and the ninth-lowest opponent three-point percentage in the league, which is below the Jazz's numbers but not by much.
Their recent defensive performances have been promising. In their last five games, Boston held the Lakers to 29% and the Suns to 27% from the three-point line.
Boston can't allow this game to become a shootout, especially if Brown is inactive. They simply don't have the firepower to keep up with Utah's shooters.
The Celtics' path to victory is making this a defensive slugfest. In all but one of the Jazz's losses, they shot below 35% from the perimeter. Look for Boston to pressure the three-point line and try to keep the score in the 90's-100's instead of 120's.
Final Celtics-Jazz Prediction & Pick
My bet on this game hinges on Jaylen Brown's availability. The Celtics badly need depth, and without Brown, I don't think they'll have enough firepower to keep up with a Jazz offense that is clicking. If Brown does play, I'll take the Celtics to keep this game close against the Conley-less Jazz.
FINAL PICK:
If Brown Plays: Celtics up to +6.
If Brown Sits: Jazz up to -7.5
